PB Nov 14 2008 Is he the one to take on Palin – then Obama? In the week after Obama’s victory in November 2008 I placed a £50 bet at 200/1 with Ladbrokes against the then governor of Utah, Jon Huntsman, winning the 2012 White House race. It seemed a long shot but during those difficult days for the Republicans after their defeat it appeared to me that there was one potential contender who had what it would take to…
Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % ComRes/Independent (phone) 30/01/11 34 43 10 ComRes/IoS-S.Mirror(Online) 13/01/11 36 40 10 ComRes/Independent (phone) 09/01/11 34 42 12 ComRes/IoS-S.Mirror(Online) 17/12/10 37 39 11 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 29/11/10 36 40 12 ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 19/11/10 37 38 13 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 31/10/10 35 37 16 ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 15/10/10 40 34 14 ComRes/Independent (Online) 01/10/10 39 36 15 ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 16/09/10 37 35 15 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 05/09/10 38 34 18 ComRes/Mirror/GMTV (Phone)…
Should the lead be 10 percent plus? The president of YouGov and well-known Labour supporter, Peter Kellner, has put the cat amongst the pigeons with an article this afternoon saying that his party should be doing substantially better in the polls. He points to the current 32% – 54% gap in YouGov’s government approve/disapprove numbers and suggests that current conditions are ones “in which the main opposition party should be miles ahead, not a measly five points. ” This is…
PB 2011 predictions now out The AV referendum is predicted to result in a “No†vote – that’s the main finding from the 2011 Politicalbetting Prediction Competition. 104 of the site’s sharpest pundits took part in PB’s annual crystal ball-gazing exercise, looking at everything from the state of the party leaders at Christmas and the opinion polls, to UK interest rates, the GOP race and the Irish election. Full details of the player-by-player predictions are
What’s the consequence of not holding it on May 5th? In the next few days big decisions will have to be taken on the voting and constituencies bill which has been held up by the massive Labour filibuster in the Lords. Ministers have three choices: To try to force a guillotine on their lordships – an unprecedented step which might fail because cross-benchers are none too keen on the idea To accede to the Labour demand to de-couple the AV…
How did the main protagonists do The big political story of the week was the shock economic growth figures. The initial estimate for Q4 2010 was that the economy shrank by 0.5%. This was much worse than anyone expected. The political reaction was fascinating. Now that the dust has settled, how do we think the parties handled the surprise and what are the implications for the future? George Osborne blamed the weather. A political slight of hand designed to buy…
David Cameron David Cameron “doing well/badly†(YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 45(+2) 95 10 71 Badly 48(-1) 4 88 25 Ed Miliband Ed Miliband “doing well/badly†(YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 37 (+4) 16 72 28 Badly 43 (-1) 65 16 57 Nick Clegg Nick Clegg “doing well/badly†(YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 34(+6) 68 8 79 Badly 57(-5) 26 88 20…
Ipsos-MORI.com Was January a blip – or the continuation of a trend? As PB regulars know I take a lot of notice leadership approval ratings particuarly those from MORI which has been asking the same questions for more than thirty years. Also, taking the lead from several leading academic political scientists who track this, my main focus is on the “satisfaction” figure and I’m less concerned about the negatives. In terms of predicting electoral outcomes it’s the proportion saying they…