Will Northern Ireland count double in the referendum?

Will Northern Ireland count double in the referendum?

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Will we get polling from the high turnout province? In almost all the discussions on the May 5th referendum nobody seems to be considering that part of the UK that almost always has the highest turnout in elections of all kinds – Northern Ireland. For on the same day there are the elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly where, four years ago, the turnout exceeded 63%. If that’s repeated it could easily be double the overall average turnout level for…

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Will YouGov spoil Ed Miliband’s good day?

Will YouGov spoil Ed Miliband’s good day?

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Did he make the right call over the protests? As predicted here on PB a week ago Ed Miliband is to marry Justine, his long-term partner and mother of his two children. The announcement was followed by an assured performance at PMQs when he returned to what seems a successful tactic of asking Cameron about a detail that the PM is not able to give. But there’s some YouGov polling just out that might take the edge off today. When…

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Did the first debate further Labour’s Scottish challenge?

Did the first debate further Labour’s Scottish challenge?

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Meanwhile the SNP nose ahead in new poll Last night the fight for control of the Holyrood parliament and who should be Scotland’s First Minister had its first major set piece – a leaders’ debate broadcast by STV. You can see it in full here. This was the first time I’d really watched Scottish Labour leader, Iain Gray, in serious action and my impression was that he’s better than many non-Labour Scottish posters have suggested – but that’s not saying…

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A Marf exhibition and a PB gathering

A Marf exhibition and a PB gathering

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Monday April 18th- the City of London There’s to be another PB gathering at the Dirty Dicks pub across the road from Liverpool Street Station. It’ll take place on Monday April 18 starting from about 6pm. Like the previous events an area of the pub will be solely for PBers. On that day as well there’ll be another gathering a couple of hours earlier at the Guildhall gallery not so far away. There, from April 1st there’s a special exhibition…

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What’ll May 5th do to Nick’s and Edward’s careers?

What’ll May 5th do to Nick’s and Edward’s careers?

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The Sun Are the locals set to underpin the Labour leader? Yesterday morning I was accused of seeking “to manage expectation” when I speculated that Labour could be heading for a gain of 1000 or more seats in the local elections in England on May 5th. The poster, who clearly has close links with the party, said that “the last time he looked Labour was expecting gains of about 200”. Well if that is the case then Labour has a…

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Andy Cooke asks: Where have the Lib Dem voters gone?

Andy Cooke asks: Where have the Lib Dem voters gone?

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Meeting the Boojum The YouGov Budget poll provides an opportunity to investigate where the Lib Dems from 2010 have gone. Regardless of the fact that different pollsters have found different levels of support for cuts/Coalition economic competence/blame levels, when we look internally in a poll which provides breakdowns by 2010 vote and current preference, we should (hopefully) be able to track some of the net churn. So, in the YouGov poll, the first thing we see is that either the…

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Should you be taking the 7/2 against the SNP?

Should you be taking the 7/2 against the SNP?

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Scottish Election polls Date LAB % SNP % CON % LD % GRN % Constituency             TNS-BMRB/STV 27/03/11 38 37 14 7   YouGov 18/03/11 41 38 10 6   ICM 14/03/11 39 35 13 10   Regional             TNS-BMRB/STV 27/03/11 35 35 14 8 5 YouGov 18/03/11 39 32 11 6 5 ICM 14/03/11 37 34 13 9 4 Could the SNP hang on to power in Scotland? There’s…

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Are we all still spooked by the Baroness?

Are we all still spooked by the Baroness?

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When are all sides going to move on from Maggie? Ed Miliband had a difficult hand to play on Saturday. The thrust of most of the hundreds of thousands who joined the TUC protest was that all cuts were wrong and should be opposed. As Andrew Ranwsley observed in the Observer this is “..not a position the Labour leader can afford to be associated with and not the position he has taken. He tried to finesse his dilemma by addressing…

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