Nick Sparrow’s March PB Polling Column

Nick Sparrow’s March PB Polling Column

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Canadian pollsters advise voters to be wary of polls! Research-live, the online newspaper for the UK market research industry reports that the Marketing Research & Intelligence Association (MRIA) in Canada has been driven to take out a full-page advertisement in the The Hill Times (a political weekly) aimed at reversing criticism of opinions polls. It seems the ad is needed because the pollsters themselves have been blabbing about the state of their own industry. Some it seems have been quoted…

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Why’s the ECJ being so breathtakingly stupid?

Why’s the ECJ being so breathtakingly stupid?

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Bloomberg Should Britain say it will defy the court? The story that’s made me most angry today has been the extraordinary decision by the European Court of Justice to stop insurance companies from allowing women to pay smaller car insurance premiums even though they are less likely to have accidents. This is being stopped on ground of “gender equality”. Andy Cooke on the previous thread had this right:- What a stupid ruling by the ECJ! The different premiums aren’t based…

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Has Labour picked up the Cleggasm non-voters?

Has Labour picked up the Cleggasm non-voters?

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ComRes splits Total % 18-24 % 25-34 % 35-44 % 45-54% 55-64 % 65 plus % CON 35 17 26 33 31 39 50 LAB 39 59 43 39 39 39 30 LD 12 15 17 14 11 9 10 Is this why 1 in 7 LAB supporters failed to turn-out? One of my pet theories on opinion poll movements is that a lot of the change from survey to survey is driven by the least valuable electors of all…

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Labour lead down 5 in new ComRes phone poll

Labour lead down 5 in new ComRes phone poll

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Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % OTH % ComRes/Independent (Phone) 27/02/11 35 39 12 14 ComRes/Independent (phone) 30/01/11 34 43 10 13 ComRes/Independent (phone) 09/01/11 34 42 12 12 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 29/11/10 36 40 12 12 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 31/10/10 35 37 16 12 But why no AV question? There’s a new ComRes phone poll out for tomorrow’s Indy which shows a four points drop for the reds with a two point increase for the yellows and a one…

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What does the future hold for David Miliband?

What does the future hold for David Miliband?

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Does he still hanker after the leadership? One of the slightly odd features of this afternoon’s Cameron statement on Libya was that not so long after Ed Miliband gave his response his brother, the former foreign secretary, was called. The elder brother made a very statesman-like contribution from the unfamiliar position of the back benches and for a moment I thought he was going to upstage Ed. He didn’t and kept his point brief. But what is going to happen…

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Hague tightens to 8-1 as the “next to leave”

Hague tightens to 8-1 as the “next to leave”

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Next Cabinet minister to leave Party Ladbrokes price Vince Cable LD 7/2 Michael Moore LD 6/1 William Hague CON 8/1 Cheryl Gillan CON 8/1 Liam Fox CON 10/1 Andrew Mitchell CON 12/1 Kenneth Clarke CON 12/1 Lord Strathclyde CON 12/1 Baroness Warsi CON 12/1 Chris Huhne LD 14/1 Andrew Lansley CON 14/1 Theresa May CON 16/1 Caroline Spelman CON 16/1 Michael Gove CON 20/1 Nick Clegg LD 20/1 Eric Pickles CON 20/1 Iain Duncan Smith CON 25/1 Danny Alexander LD…

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The Ireland count finally nears the close

The Ireland count finally nears the close

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RTE Record seat hauls for FG, Labour, and Sinn Fein as FF collapse Links: RTE live blog RTE map and results Irish Times Irish Independent Many smaller European countries manage to count their votes in four hours or less, but Ireland isn’t one of them. However, the marathon vote count in this historic election is finally drawing to a close, but with 16 Dail seats remaining to be filled, and four constituencies still counting (Laois-Offaly, Wicklow, and recounts in both…

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Could moving off the issue rebound on NO?

Could moving off the issue rebound on NO?

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Is “YES to AV” a proxy for government dissatisfaction? This week the NO campaign will focus its attention not on the issue that’s on the ballot paper but on Nick Clegg. The aim is to make the May 5th election a referendum on the Lib Dem leader. Ads have been drawn up with the headline “Say No to President Clegg” together with their claim that a switch to AV will cost £250m – a figure that has been attacked from…

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