Salmond’s party becomes favourite after new MORI poll There’s been a lot of betting activity overnight with the publication of a new Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll that suggests that the SNP is heading for a big victory in the devolved parliament elections on May 5th. In both parts of the survey – the constituency and the list – Ipsos-MORI found that the SNP have soared ahead opening up ten and eleven point gaps on Labour. As can be seen from the…
Why would Vince give up his cabinet job? Channel 4 news is making a splash tonight over comments made on a train by Ed Miliband in which the Labour leader appealed to Cable and other LDs to join Labour. The fact that this appeal has been made publicly means that there’s nothing in it. Genuine defections come about after secret talks and the first thing you hear is that the move has been made. In any case what’s in it…
Is this how YES could motivate Labour voters? This is just my bit of fun – but with time running out for the YES I was wondering what I would do if I was running the campaign. Is it possible to reverse the sharp trend to rejecting any change? Isn’t this the moment take a different approach? Given that we know that “Dress-down Dave” is sensitive about his background as a Toff why not remind voters that the privileged classes…
The Ipsos-MORI Monitor for April is just out and has the Tories on 40% – three up on the general election last May and at their highest level with the pollster since then. The blues are now level-legging with Labour and this is the first poll from the firm since October with Labour not in the lead. As can be seen from the chart the firm has the yellows continuing to decline amongst those “certain to vote”. MORI headline figures…
One of YouGov’s fortnightly trackers is to ask about voters’ perceptions of the three main parties including a question on leaders. Panellists are asked “Which party do you think it applies to most – the Conservatives, Labour or the Liberal Democrats? – “Is led by people of real ability”. You would expect those sampled to choose the leader of the party that they say they’ll vote for and that certainly happens with the Tories with 70% choosing Cameron. I’d never…
There’s the latest YouGov AV tracker out for the Sun which shows a sharp move to NO compared with the internet firm’s last survey on the subject just three days ago. Then it had a one point NO lead – this evening the gap is 16 points. The margins is exactly the same as we saw in last night telephone poll from ICM for the Guardian. The next big AV poll should be a phone survey from Ipsos-MORI. That’ll be…
Is comfort-zone campaigning going to cost it the referendum? Yesterday’s big referendum events demonstrated again the reason why No is winning the campaign on AV: they are talking to themselves; their opponents are talking to the voters. The Yes leaders appear to have made no effort to gain any traction with voters to the right of centre. At the very minimum, they’ve not succeeded in doing so. Not a single Conservative has been paraded, nor has anyone from the Orange…
Was it a mistake to push for the vote on May 5th? A big debate while the legislation was going through parliament was whether it was right to hold the referendum on the same day as other elections. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have their devolved general elections alongside the referendum on May 5th while in England there are local and mayoral elections in many areas but not all. As part of their poll ICM sought to distinguish between the…