Will the coalition collapse over the boundary review?

Will the coalition collapse over the boundary review?

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Will October 2013 be the critical moment? At a briefing suggestion on the boundary review this lunch-time a leading Tory insider suggested that the most critical issue for the future of the coalition will be the vote on the new boundaries that is expected to take place in October 2013 (Note that the vote due then is not on the legislation which has already been agreed and enacted. Rather it on the the detailed proposals to redraw the electoral map….

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Who’ll blink first in the US debt crisis?

Who’ll blink first in the US debt crisis?

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Guardian Will Obama and Congress go to the brink and beyond? Possibly the biggest political gamble going on at the moment is the series of judgement calls being made by politicians in Washington. By their failure to agree so far, they are running the very real risk of at the least a partial shutdown of the federal government and at worst an outright default. None of it need happen. The markets are willing to lend the money the government needs…

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How steep a mountain does Labour have to climb?

How steep a mountain does Labour have to climb?

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How hard is it going to be to return to power? There are two schools of thought in the Labour Party on the scale of the defeat at the 2010 election. Important expectations are tied to each of these and are creating a peculiar dynamic in the party right now. It sounds strange, but one year on and many of us cannot agree how badly we did and how far we are from the winning post. The first camp led…

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Growth: Will blaming the Wedding sound a bit lame?

Growth: Will blaming the Wedding sound a bit lame?

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But was this a factor in the likely gloomy news? The big story today and, possibly longer, will be the economic growth figures for April – June 2011 (Q2) that are due out this morning. The signs are that the figures are not good and one of the explanations being put forward is that so many people took extended breaks at the time of the royal wedding. It will be recalled that this took place on Friday April 29th three…

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ComRes: 2 in 3 say News Corp shouldn’t own only ANY of BSkyB

ComRes: 2 in 3 say News Corp shouldn’t own only ANY of BSkyB

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And Labour open up 6 point lead The chart I’m featuring from the new ComRes telephone poll out for tomorrow’s Independent is the one that is being highlighted by the pollster and most probably the paper itself – responses to the question “The hacking scandal shows that Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation is not “fit and proper” to own any part of BskyB” As can be seen from the chart those interviewed were very supportive of the proposition with not too…

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How certain is Huhne’s exit if he’s charged?

How certain is Huhne’s exit if he’s charged?

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Could he just carry on as a minister? There’s been a flurry of activity on the next cabinet exit betting market following the news that Chris Huhne has had another meeting with police and that this now in the hands of the CPS. Paddypower now make Huhne the 4/5 favourite to be first out with Ladbrokes offering 2/1. But how certain is a resignation if he’s charged? Couldn’t Huhne just say that you innocent until found guilty and just carry…

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What if the Q2 growth figures are negative?

What if the Q2 growth figures are negative?

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Is Glover right: the coalition could be fighting for its life? One of the best Monday morning columns today is by Julian Glover in the Guardian in which he ponders the consequences if tomorrow’s Q2 growth figures are negative. He writes: “….Everything else, more or less, is survivable: but the coalition could not outlast a collapse of confidence in its economic plans. And with ..the figures confidence will be shaken again. Climbing food and fuel prices, a domestic recovery made…

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