Punters give Boris a 70pc chance of being re-elected

Punters give Boris a 70pc chance of being re-elected

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Betfair Politics But shouldn’t Labour be capitalising more on their poll position? The next big scheduled UK election is that for London mayor next May. The main battle, like last time, will be between Ken and Boris with the former attempting to make it three wins out of four. As the chart of Betfair prices illustrates punter sentiment is strongly with the incumbent. In 2008 Ken ran Boris reasonably close at a time when his party, Labour, had slumped to…

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Is now the time to bet against Obama?

Is now the time to bet against Obama?

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Gallup Should he really be such a tight odds-on favourite? One statistic about US politics that has been bandied about quite a lot recently is that no US president since Franklin Roosevelt has been re-elected with the unemployment rate above 7.2%. The figure for this month is 9.2%. It will take some turnaround for the rate to get back down by November next year, particularly in light of the sluggish growth figures released there this week. As they say in…

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Is the 50p tax the next Coalition battleground?

Is the 50p tax the next Coalition battleground?

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Henry G Manson on a possible Blue-Yellow clash So far public tensions and skirmishes between the two Coalition parties have centred on social policy such as on the NHS or democratic reform such as AV and the House of Lords. The greatest unity appears has been on the government’s economic agenda despite significant pre-election differences between the parties. That could soon change. There has been a growing frequency number of nods and winks from the Treasury that George Osborne intends…

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Marf on “PB Armistice Night”

Marf on “PB Armistice Night”

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What happens when we are nice to our opponents PB regulars used to the hurly-burly of many of the site’s threads might have been shocked to read what happened overnight. After a heated and fractious discussion following the latest hacking story the former Labour MP and contributor here since 2004, Nick Palmer, suggested that we all look at our political opponents and try to write something positive. Extraordinarily people followed the suggestion and peace broke out. It was as though…

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What do tonight’s developments add to the story?

What do tonight’s developments add to the story?

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Obviously developments in the hacking story are making the running in the newsrooms tonight and no doubt it will feature prominently both on the front pages and at the top of TV news bulletin running orders. What I can’t work out is what this does to the hacking saga apart just reinforcing people’s views. Very little surprises us any more. @MikeSmithsonPB

What vote lead will LAB/CON need for a majority?

What vote lead will LAB/CON need for a majority?

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Will we start to get an idea in September? On September 12th or 13th the boundary commissioners for England will produce their first proposals on how the electoral map should be re-drawn for the 2015 general election. The Scottish proposals are due out in October and the Welsh ones now look set to be published at about the same time. These will be critical documents and will allow Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus, Anthony Wells of YouGov UKPollingReport and others…

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Is Boris hoping for a Tory by-election vacancy?

Is Boris hoping for a Tory by-election vacancy?

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Is the mayor scheming to get Dave’s job? What is Boris Johnson up to? With the London Olympics being only a year off he’s hardly been off our screens and even before that he was getting attention putting forward his plan to deal with Britain’s growth challenge. The fact that his proposals were out of kilter with current coalition policy is neither here nor there. Just look at his responses in the final minute or so of the John Snow’s…

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The London Olympics – the great divide

The London Olympics – the great divide

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Why so little interest? With one year to go until the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games in London, a YouGov shows British divided over support for the Games and the benefits hosting will bring. 40% are interested in the London Olympic Games with one year to go 44% think London should have bid for the Games, 42% disagree 55% think the Games will be good for London generally Athletics is the most popular sport with 68% choosing it as…

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