Are we seeing the return of tactical voting The latest poll of voting intentions in the South West of England is just out and has good news for the Lib Dems and UKIP but bad news for Labour. As can be seen from the chart Labour are down from 28% two months ago to 21% now though this is still six points up on what they did in the region at the general election. The Tories, meanwhile, are down 2…
Should you take the 7/1 that Cameron will get his way? Overnight I put a bet on with Ladbrokes at 7/1 that the American who as been boss of several US police forces, including New York, Bill Bratton, will get the job as Metropolitan Police commissioner. This appointment is reported to becoming becoming a trial of strength between Number 10 and the Home Office with the latter making it a job requirement that the post goes to a British citizen….
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Betfair Politics And one-time 2nd favourite Pawlenty quits the race There’s been a fair bit of activity on the betting markets following the formal announcement of Rick Perry’s declaration that he’s running and the aftermath of yesterday’s straw poll at Ames, Iowa. The Texas governor, Rick Perry, has edged into the favourite slot on Betfair while Pawlenty is to make a statement today that he’s pulling out. He was the big loser yesterday in Aimes after throwing a huge amount…
But all three leaders see improvements The weekly leader ratings from YouGov are just out and all three see an increase in their “doing well” figures and a decline in the “doing badly” rating. The biggest change has been for Nick Clegg who sees the positive number going up by four with a similar drop in the negative one making an eight point net change. The LD leader still has the smallest positive number and the biggest negative one. Miliband…
Will all the signs suggesting that Michelle Bachmann is heading for victory in the Aimes Straw poll – the first electoral test of the 2012 race – the big news tonight is likely to be the entry into the contest of Texas governor, Rick Perry. Bachmann’s victory, expected to be announced in the next half hour, enhances the credibility of her campaign, help with fundraising and also puts the spotlight on the losers. Although the Aimes event has no binding…
Can she win the Ames Straw poll? In a few hours time thousands of Republican party activists will be arriving at the Iowa state university campus in Ames for what has become the traditional kick off in the party’s race to find it’s candidate for the White House. Early next year the state should be the first to hold a primary – in its case through the caucus system – and a good performance today is critical for several of…
Is it the wrong time to assert unearned rights? In the emergency parliamentary debate on the riots this week both David Cameron and Ed Miliband used the disturbances as evidence in support of concepts that are clearly key to how they see their leaderships and what they want to address or to deliver through them: the Broken Society in David Cameron’s case, and the British Promise in Ed Miliband’s. The Labour leader’s is the more interesting of the two at…