How Dave/Ed/Nick are rated by party voters
The Tory voter view of David Cameron The Labour voter view of Ed Miliband The LD voter view of Nick Clegg All this, of course from today’s Ipsos-MORI monitor for Reuters.
Labour extend their lead with Ipsos-MORI
And another pollster records an increase for “others” The October MORI political monitor for Reuters is just out and has margin of error changes which see Labour extend their lead from 2% last month to 4% today. It’s CON 34 (-1): LAB 38 (+1): LD 12 (-1): OTH 16 (+1). In the leader ratings Ed Miliband has moved up from last month’s worst ever position. He’s now on 34% satisfaction an increase of 3. Cameron’s up one at 40% while…
Wednesday evening in the PB NightHawks Cafe
This is the place for PB’s informal overnight conversation where lurkers who have never posted before are particularly welcome. Have a good evening – tomorrow I’m hoping that we’ll see the MORI October poll. Last month it was 35-37-13. @MikeSmithsonPB
Should the Tories still be favourites to get a majority?
General election outcome Betfair CON MAJ 1.46/1 NO OVERALL MAJ 1.78/1 LAB MAJ 2.65/1 Are there too many obstacles to success? This is first post on the betting for next time – which almost certainly will be be on May 7th 2015 – three and a half years off. The only general election market I’ve been tempted by is on which year where I’ve built up a reasonable position at odds averaging just short of evens on 2015. I regard…
What’s the fixed term parliament act done to politics?
Has it taken the “fizz” out of the process Just over six weeks ago the fixed term parliaments’ act finally became law setting the next general election date as May 7th 2015. While it is true that there are a couple of ways that an election could take place before that the current coalition arithmetic means that these look unlikely. Reflecting on what’s happened since it strikes me that the change is having a profound affect on the whole political…
ICM: 44pc of Lib Dems want out of the EU
Is Clegg out of line with his party supporters? The dataset from the latest ICM poll is out and showns an interesting break-down of how supporters of the main parties responded to the in/out question on the EU. As can be seen from the chart Tories were less likely to want to stay in but more likely to want to leave. But just look at the split amongst those telling ICM that they’d vote Lib Dem. A total of 55%…
The polling the Eurosceptics hate seeing
Ipsos-MORI Once again concern about the EU barely registers Anthony Wells of UKPR had the salient factor spot on in an excellent review of polling on the EU. Salience, how important people regard an issue, is something that always needs to be taken into account when trying to assess the political impact. He wrote: “The best regular measure of salience is Ipsos MORI’s monthly issues tracker, since it is entirely unprompted. MORI ask people what they think the most important…
…meanwhile Labour opens up 4 point gap with ICM
This from the firm that in August had the Tories ahead While all the focus was on the vote in the commons last night the ICM October poll for the Guardian was published with more bad news for the coalition parties. What’s really bad for them is that in both July and August ICM was showing a Tory lead. Since then Cameron’s party has dropped three, Labour has moved up four, the LD down four with the others parties gaining…