politicalbetting.com

..seriously underestimating their opponent The Guardian’s Polly Toynbee caused quite a few guffaws yesterday following her piece suggesting that Ed Miliband had a good chance of winning the 2015 general election. Since that was written we’ve had two polls – ComRes and the latest YouGov – showing Labour with four and six percent leads, both sufficient even with the planned boundary changes to produce a very healthy majority. The big hope that you hear from the blue team is that…

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Your chance to join PB’s overnight conversation. Meanwhile tonight’s YouGov daily poll has: CON 35%, LAB 41%, LD 9% – so a 6 point Labour lead compared with just two points last night. @MikeSmithsonPB

Betfair Politics The Democrat party becomes favourite once again With just one year and one week to go before polling day the sentiment on the Betfair betting exchange, as seen in the chart, is that the Democrats (most probably Obama) are going to hang on to the White House. It’s going to be a tough fight and the president’s re-election chances might be hampered by efforts in a number of states to make it hard for people to register and…

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Could the growth figures create an opportunity for Labour? This morning we get the growth figures for Q3 2011 and last night shadow chancellor Ed Balls was preparing the ground by setting out what he thought the coalition should have been achieving. For this regular event provides one of the few opportunities for the opposition to call ministers to account on their management of the economy. Balls knows the form as well as anybody and has been reminding everybody what…

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If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints, please contact her at marfcartoons@btinternet.com Labour take 4 point lead in ComRes phone poll And the Lib Dems move to 14 percent The first ComRes phone poll since the end of September is out tonight for tomorrow’s Independent and shows several changes. Notably Labour are back in the lead and the Lib Dems are moving forward. The 14% for Nick Clegg’s party is the best the party has seen from…

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Scotsman Why the gender gap on independence? In recent weeks there’s been a lot of discussion about the gender gap in attitudes to the Conservatives and their leader, Mr. Cameron. Poll after poll has shown that men are more favourable than women. Well Alex Salmond seems to have a similar challenge in Scotland over attitudes to independence – which will, of course, be subject to a referendum. Men, it appears are much more enthusiastic than women – 41% to 27%…

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Politico Is another non-Romney contender biting the dust? There’ve been sharpish moves on the Republican nominee betting markets overnight following allegations on Politico that at least two female employees had complained about inappropriate behavior by Herman Cain when he’d be running the National Restaurant Association in the mid-1990s. The report says that the women complained of “sexually suggestive behavior by Cain that made them angry and uncomfortable”. Cain’s campaign has attacked the reports but it’s hard to conclude other than…

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Have you ever switched your vote because of your betting? James Forsyth has a nice political betting story in his Mail on Sunday column today. He writes:- One Eurosceptic Tory had an unusual reason for abstaining in the vote on an EU referendum: he didn’t want to lose a bet. Convinced that the rebellion would fizzle out, he had made a wager with a fellow sceptic that fewer than 60 Tories would vote against the Government. The deal was that,…

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