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Betfair Politics Are you profiting from the violent swings? For those political punters who love trading by trying to anticipate how the betting prices will change the White House race is absolutely absorbing and if you get it right very profitable. For not only have we seen violent changes in prices the Betfair betting exchange market has been liquid – something that doesn’t happen very often with political bets. Now, as we look forward to the start of actual voting…

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This is the first of the three categories of PB Posters of the Year. The short-list has been drawn up by Sunil, Peter the Punter and myself and it’s been decided to have a slightly different voting system. Essentially you can vote for as many candidates as you wish. Clearly if you have one strong personal favourite then just tick against his or her name. But if you think a number of contenders are worthy of the title then put…

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A LAB man writes about his favourite Tory Thanks to Gwynfa for offering the ‘Christmas Armistice’ challenge of writing about my favourite Conservative MP. I have been assured by Our Genial Host that this will be reciprocated. One stands out for me above all others. There are plenty of things I admire about the Member of Parliament for Haltemprice and Howden, the Rt. Hon. David Davis MP. In stark contrast to the manicured, coiffed and pink-cheeked Cameron, Davis has lived…

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What would you really like for Christmas? Just two days to go and I’m contemplating the drive on Saturday round the M25 to go to my daughter’s in Croydon where we will be having a family Christmas. So the one thing I’d really love is a clear run, especially in the approach to the Dartford crossing. Meanwhile the politics doesn’t stop and there’s a tight three-way fight going on in a council by-election in Brighton. Last time in the ward…

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Which of these party leaders will still be in their positions at the general election? (Tick all that apply) David Cameron CON Ed Miliband LAB Nick Clegg LD Nigel Farage UKIP      Help keep PB going – support the Xmas appeal

Who might fill the gap if it wasn’t an organised departure? Peter Bone has twice asked in the last week if Nick Clegg would take over as prime minister in the event of David Cameron dying in office – or presumably stepping down with immediate effect in any other circumstance. Irrespective of what’s prompted him to pursue the question, it’s worth looking at. Although no prime minister has died in office for almost 150 years, there have been some close…

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Latest YouGov 40/40/10 With Christmas now only three and bit days away we are still waiting for what should be the final phone poll of 2011 – from ICM for the Guardian. I’ve got no news about it but it’s a survey I’m very keen to see given that the last poll from the firm, at the weekend, had CON 40/LAB 34/LD 14. Was that just an outlier or can we expect something in the same region? Who knows? Apart…

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A year on and the polling’s almost the same Every fortnight since the first coalition budget YouGov has been asking the same question in the same format “And who do you think is most to blame for the current spending cuts?” The response options have been the same: CON-LD coalition: Labour: Both: Neither: Don’t know. What’s been remarkable is how consistent the response pattern has been. Thus the latest figures are very similar to what respondees were saying a year…

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