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Can Romney cope with the onslaught in S. Carolina? After his big victory in New Hampshire on Tuesday night the general view was that Mitt Romney was on his way to winning the Republican nomination. That result made it two out of two and he only had to take the next state in line, South Carolina, and he would appear invincible. In a piece on Saturday David Herdson rightly concluded that this third primary test was probably the most important….

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Election outcome < New boundaries Old boundaries LAB MAJORITY LAB LEAD 4.3% LAB LEAD 3% LAB MOST SEATS CON LEAD below 2.2% CON LEAD below 4% CON MOST SEATS CON LEAD above 2.2% CON LEAD 4% CON MAJORITY CON LEAD above 7.4% CON LEAD 11% LAB can still come top with fewer votes Thanks to YouGov’s Anthony Wells at UKPR for producing a revised set of notional outcomes following the publication of the proposed new boundaries for Wales. The table...

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And Ed’s best PM numbers drop to new low Tonight’s YouGov has LAB at 38% two points below CON on 40% with the LDs at 10% Perhaps even more worrying for the red team is that just 17% of the sample rated Ed as the “best PM” – his worst rating since becoming leader in September 2010. In many ways the poll is in line with all the negative press that he has been getting. So far the only polling…

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After a period which has brought one negative story after another for Ed Miliband the Labour leader cannot have been looking forward to PMQs. He got off to a difficult start attacking the government on the rail fare increases which Cameron said was the result of the Labour government’s policies. I don’t know who was right on that one but EdM didn’t come out of the exchange very well. Spats over fact are tricky for the opposition leader and and…

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ABC news Even though it less than half an hour since the polls closed the outcome in New Hampshire is clear – Romney winning by the margins predicted in the final polls with Paul in second place and Huntsman down in third. Unless there’s a big change as more results come in this must surely mark the end for John Huntsman who appeared to surge in recent days. Romney will go into to the third state, South Carolina, next week…

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This is the ballot form that NH voters have faced It’s slightly shocking to see how many candidates are on the ballot. It’s also interesting looking at the order of names. It seems that this is alphabetical starting at a random point. All very fair because with long ballot forms like this the experience is that those nearer the top might have an advantage. Of the main candidates Newt Gingrich is closest to the top while Rick Santorum is at…

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Nearly two years on and LAB still being blamed Apart from the HS2 decision the big UK political news today has been Ed Miliband’s big speech on the economy and how a future LAB government would operate. A particular point was his promise that in order to win in 2015 “Labour would be “a different party from the one we were in the past”. He also said they were ready to take on “vested interests” and “deliver fairness”. All fine…

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Betfair Hillary price NH primary day 2008 It’s New Hampshire primary day and perhaps a good moment to reflect on the nightmare political betting night that some punters had four years ago. In the Democratic race Obama had won Iowa a few days earlier and looked on target to take New Hampshire. It all seemed so certain. An opinion poll of the state by Gallup on the day before had reported 41% for Obama with 28% for Hillary Clinton. Nobody…

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