politicalbetting.com

My selection of this evening’s tweets:- Just 41 people contributed 25% of Romney’s campaign war chest…pwire.at/xSJbs1 — Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) February 2, 2012 #GOP: Romney 31% / Gingrich 25% / Santorum 17% / Paul 12% / Other 2% / Unsure 13% (Gallup nat’l tracking, Jan 28-Feb 1) j.mp/nEDXyw — PollingReport.com (@pollreport) February 2, 2012 Clegg is facing a potential dilemma over Chris Huhne, says James Forsyth: spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/76… — Coffee House (@Spectator_CH) February 2, 2012 Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Telegraph What can we read into this afternoon’s news? In a discussion over a drink at the weekend my lawyer friend who’s had a career as a prosecutor suggested that one of the major considerations for the CPS over the Huhne case would be whether it would be possible to hold a fair trial. This has gone on for such a long time and received a massive amount of publicity that an initial consideration would be whether it would be…

Read More Read More

Ashcroft poll on Scottish Referendum For independence Against independence “Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?” 41 59 “Do you agree or disagree that Scotland should be an independent country?” 39 61 “Should Scotland become an independent country, or should it remain part of the United Kingdom?“ 33 67 Which of the above is the fairest? Michael Ashcroft has funded some polling (I assume by Populus) on the way that changing the words in the Scottish referendum…

Read More Read More

… My selection of this evening’s tweets:- BBC must’ve run this story as a favour to Tories – 7-child family needing >£26k benefits spends £100/wk on fags & booze bbc.co.uk/news/uk-168121… — Greg Callus (@Morus1516) February 1, 2012 Forfeiture committee said it couldn’t strip Fred of his ‘K’ in 2009 bit.ly/zes6ZR — Gary Gibbon’s Blog (@GaryGibbonBlog) February 1, 2012 12 LibDem bedroom tax rebels:Brooke, crockhart, George, hancock, leech, rogerson,mulholl, Russell, sanders, swales, ward, wllms — Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) February 1, 2012…

Read More Read More

Are his commons performances restoring confidence? Less than a fortnight ago Ed Miliband’s future as LAB leader seemed very much in doubt. William Hills took some big bets and concluded that the incumbent was a gonner. The price against Ed not surviving until the general election moved in to 8/11 and you could have got evens on him staying there. Things have changed rapidly. He did okay at PMQs last week and performed very well in response to Cameron’s commons…

Read More Read More

After his Florida thumping Newt says he staying As expected Mitt Romney won Florida overnight with a fourteen point victory. It was a huge result for the ex-governor of Massachusetts and one, surely, that makes it even more likely that he’ll be the nominee. But Newt was defiant an hour or so ago. The big message, as seen in the posters in the pictures, was “46 States To Go” – a statement that suggests that he is going to stick…

Read More Read More

LDs up 3 while LAB regain the lead There’s a new ComRes telephone poll out for the Independent and the figures, with changes on the last phone poll from the firm are in the chart above. Not much change except the Lib Dem share moving up 3 to 14%. The non-VI questions all follow ComRes’s standard pattern of making a statement and then asking whether respondents agree or not. I loathe this approach but it is all we’ve got The…

Read More Read More

… How big will Mitt win by tonight? It is extraordinary that only nine days ago Newt had a big lead in Florida and looked all set to take a second successive state. As we all know it hasn’t actually happened like that and if some polls are right Mitt will win with a double digit lead Well after facing probably the biggest onslaught of negative advertising ever in a primary and having two mediocre debate performances the outlook for…

Read More Read More