politicalbetting.com

Google politics One thing clear: the checkered past of primary pre-election polling in AL/MS didn’t improve any tonight. All polls understated Santorum — Mark Blumenthal (@MysteryPollster) March 14, 2012 Santorum’s tendency to outperform his polling averages is statistically significant. — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) March 14, 2012 After failing in Alabama and Mississippi will Newt pull out? If like me you believed the polling then you won’t have made any money on the Alabama and Mississippi primaries. Yet extraordinarily the unlikely…

Read More Read More

If you thought that it was all over with Super Tuesday last week then think again. We’ve got three tonight – Alabama, Mississippi and Hawaii. There is also American Samoa (thanks to Chris g00 for reminding me) which has 9 delegates. The big interest will be in the first two where the polling has it very tight. Have a good night. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

And barely 1 in 5 believe in evolution Two of today’s primaries in the race to become the Republican party nominee are in the deep south – the neighbouring states of Alabama (50 delegates) and Mississippi (40 delegates). The polling suggests that both could be very close with only two points separating the three main contenders in Alabama – Gingrich, Romney and Santorum. In Mississippi Gingrich is just two points ahead of Romney with Santorum a further four points behind….

Read More Read More

Next president Betfair Politics The price of gasoline: Something a president can do a lot about 54% / Beyond any president’s control 36% (CBS/NYT Poll) j.mp/xC5102 — PollingReport.com (@pollreport) March 13, 2012 Obama’s approval rate drops to new low in new poll…pwire.at/yZo7Ey — Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) March 12, 2012 Could he be punished for rising gas prices? A new poll just out has Obama’s approval ratings moving to a new low. According to the latest CBS survey just 41% of…

Read More Read More

Next week on PB We are having short break in the border country near Berwick and I won’t be posting much on the site. If anybody has got ideas for guest slots then please drop me an email. @MikeSmithsonOGH

Or has the Lansley plan muddied the waters for years? It now seems likely that before Easter the Lansley NHS changes, in a much amended form, will be approved by parliament. The question for the Tories is how much is going to be remembered come general election day. Will they say, for instance, give us a majority and we’ll implement it in full? I doubt it. As poll after poll has shown the NHS remains a toxic issue issues the…

Read More Read More

Would it be better for Miliband if he was? Back in 2004 Labour’s electoral genius, Tony Blair, took a massive gamble to ensure that his party would win at least one big prize at that year’s local elections. Ken Livingstone, who had first won the London mayoralty four years earlier as an independent, was controversially brought back into the party to be LAB candidate for Mayor. Nikki Gavron, who had been fairly and squarely selected as candidate months earlier, was…

Read More Read More

Google elections Romney is heading for the nomination – at $17.14 a vote – My latest at Telegraph Blogs soc.li/4KtIjEP — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) March 11, 2012