538 blog New York Times And Gingrich could be struggling in his home state Above is the latest projection from Nate Silvers 538 blog at the New York Times and shows his latest projection for the crucial Michigan primary that takes place a week today. As can be seen he’s giving it to Romney by the smallest of margins. A new Mitchell Research poll taken yesterday has Romney 2 points ahead. Just over a week ago the same pollster had…
Let Scotland go and compete.Everyone would win. — Rupert Murdoch(@rupertmurdoch) February 20, 2012 From distance, Santorum doing great.Values really do count in America, and not sneered at as in parts of Europe. Win Michigan game over. — Rupert Murdoch(@rupertmurdoch) February 20, 2012 Alex Salmond clearly most brilliant politicianin U.K.Gave Cameron back of his hand this week.Loved by Scots. — Rupert Murdoch(@rupertmurdoch) February 19, 2012 How much influence does he still have? There’ve been a couple of tweets overnight from Rupurt…
Welcome once again to the cafe – our informal overnight thread where you set the agenda. @MikeSmithsonOGH
The first telephone poll of the month, ICM for the Guardian is out and sees the Tory five point lead of last month become a one point LAB lead tonight. This follows a difficult period for the coalition particularly on the Lansley health bill. On that 52% say that the bill should be dropped with 33% saying the plans should be stuck to. Whatever the apparent splits within the blue, reported by Tim Montgomerie at ConHome, are clearly not helping….
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But Santorum has 22% lead in favourability ratings There’s a new poll out from Public Policy Polling on next week’s crucial Michigan primary which many pundits are suggesting could be the most decisive of the whole nomination campaign. This is, of course, Romney’s home state where his father was once governor and which he won comfortably in the primary in 2008. He really needs a victory there to head off his critics. As can be seen from the numbers Santorum…
Can Sarkozy make up a double digit deficit? So far we’ve hardly covered on PB the big election in Europe this year – the battle for the French presidency – which takes place in only a couple of months. This is a huge contest as Nicolas Sarkozy attempts to hold on against a fierce challenge by socialist leader, Francois Hollande, and will get lots of media attention in the UK. Last time there was a lot of interest in the…
How serious is this? There’ve been dramatic moves in the Republican nomination betting during the past few hours which have seen the price on the former governor of Texas, Jeb Bush, move in from 70/1 on Betfair to about 20/1 now. This put the brother of the last Republican party president into the third favourite slot for the nomination behind Romney and Santorum even though he is not a declared runner and is not on the ballots in any of…