Nate Silver’s 538 blog New York Times Nate Silver, who runs the excellent 538 blog at the New York Times, has produced a lengthy analysis overnight on the performance of polls in the current primary season. His chart above tracks the error in the polls and compares it to the number of days in advance of the election that they were conducted. Nate calculates the error by looking at how much the polls missed the final margin between the top…
Boris tells c4 Gary gibbon he ‘wont seek leadership’ of his party and ‘won’t return to parliament’ if he loses mayor vote in may. — Robin Brant (@robindbrant) March 1, 2012 Is he planning to leave politics if defeated. It sounds like it? @MikeSmithsonOGH
What’ll this do to VI figures? ICM, which in 1995 became the first UK polling firm to mount political surveys by phone, announced this afternoon that from the March poll for the Guardian about 150 of the 1000 interviews will be achieved via interviews on mobile phones. This is in response to the decline in proportion on the population who have land-lines and the increasing difficulty reaching young voters particularly young men. According to research by Ofcom 32% of those…
Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % OTH % ICM/Guardian 20-Feb-2012 36 37 14 13 Populus/Times 20-Feb-2012 37 39 11 13 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 29-Feb-2012 35 41 12 12 ComRes/Independent 27-Feb-2012 37 40 13 10 YouGov/Sun 29-Feb-2012 38 40 9 13 ***PAPA*** LATEST 36.6 39.4 11.8 12.2 This is the Politicalbetting All Pollsters’ Average which I hadn’t updated for months. Now AndyJS is administering this for us and will…
Is this what will determine whether it’s YES or NO? There’s some new polling from Ipsos-MORI that’s just been published that, I believe, goes right to the heart of the Scottish independence referendum – whether voters will feel assured about their financial prospects if they vote for the big change. The overall conclusion was that the prospect of Scotland becoming an independent country leaves people feeling less optimistic about their personal financial situation and about economic conditions in Scotland. That…
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Is he becoming a one club golfer? For the fourth successive PMQs Ed Miliband focused his attacks on the government’s stance on the NHS bill and, on balance, he got the better of Dave again. This is a tricky one for the Tories and I thought that although Dave was better prepared today Miliband just edged it. But the opposition leader, surely, has got to find something else to go on. At some stage, perhaps not too far off, the…
Is this the end of Dave’s “Veto Bounce” The February political monitor from MORI is out and LAB moves to a six point lead over the Tories with the LDs unchanged. In January the two parties were level with the blues still getting the benefit of the so-called “Veto Bounce”. All three main party leaders recorded negative satisfaction ratings, with more voters saying they were unhappy with the job they were doing than satisfied. Cameron’s personal rating was down 10…