Betfair Politics Three weeks to ago and punters flee Ken According to those risking their money on the Betfair London mayor market Ken’s Chances are now just 21% based on the bets being traded this afternoon. This is almost a record low. At the same time Boris’s odds get tighter. It’s hard to argue with the market judgement. @MikeSmithsonOGH
Will 600+ gains underpin EdM’s leadership? We are in that silly time that we see every April when the parties try to tell us how badly they are going to do in the May locals while the academic specialists who monitor this closely set out what they think we should expect. A central figure in this is Professor Colin Rallings (The R of the famous Rallings & Thrasher partnership who do thing like work out the “official general election notionals”…
A special offer for PB party attendees A week tomorrow it’s the next PB gathering at the Dirty Dicks pub which is across the road from Liverpool Street station. I’ll be bringing with me some of the remaining copies of my 2007 book, The Political Punter, which is now out of print. It is a bit old bit but the basic principles stay the same. If anybody would like one please email me in advance. All I ask is that…
Is it worth betting on? The ever resourceful market creaters at Ladbrokes have come up with a range of different new London mayoral markets which seemed to have been designed solely to tempt PBers. One of them relates to the operation of the quasi-AV voting system which gives all electors what’s described as a supplementary vote. If no single candidate reaches the 50% mark on the first count then the second preferences of those ranked third and below are added…
Is this the most worrying trend for the coalition? PB regulars will know that the one economic tracker that I keep a close eye on is the Who is to blame for the cuts? which YouGov has been asking at least twice a month for nearly two years. We hear it time and time again – the most central piece of rhetoric that comes from coalition ministers is that drastic action had to be taken because “of the mess left…
Betfair Politics The news tonight that ex-senator Rick Santorum is pulling out of the race sets the seal on what everybody has known since the Wisconsin primary last Tuesday – Mitt Romney is going to be the nominee. For smart punters who like to trade this presents a great opportuntiy for currently the UK’s main betting exchange, Betfair, prices Romney as just a 30.1% chance to become the next president. In my judgement, backed up by a four figure bet,…
How can he compete with the likable Boris? There’s a new ComRes poll for the London mayoralty which has, in the final two forced choice, Boris beating Ken by 53% to 47%. More interesting, given the importance of leader ratings in predicting outcomes, are the like him/like his party responses with ComRes using the format that was developed by Ipsos-MORI. As can be seen Boris has a massive likability lead over Ken and if the official LAB man makes the…
Meet my 250/1 long shot for City Hall Have you noticed how over the past few days there’s increasing talk about the challenge from the ex-senior civil servant with powerful friends, Siobhan Benita, for Mayor of London? This is from a two page report from Rachel Sylvestor in the Times over the weekend: Siobhan Benita is the one to watch. This former civil servant who resigned from the department of health over Andrew Lansley’s NHS reforms is attracting support from…