Continuation thread and note on ICM

Continuation thread and note on ICM

Comments 0 Comment

There is an interesting snippet emerging from Martin Boon of ICM. “ICM\Sunday Telegraph to launch brand new method of predicting elections using public opinion” Whilst Patrick Hennessey of the Sunday Telegraph tweeted “New direction in opinion polling pioneered by SunTel/ICM tomorrow…watch this space later on” This will be out this evening. I’m very intrigued by this. Hopefully there will be a VI poll as well. TSE Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.    

Should Cameron reshuffle this Summer?

Should Cameron reshuffle this Summer?

Comments 0 Comment

David Herdson on a cabinet reshuffle. If so, who goes, stays, moves and arrives? One feature of the coalition government has been how stable ministerial appointments have been.  The great majority of those appointed in 2010 are not only still in office but still in the same office.  When ministers have left the government, the ensuing reshuffles have been very vertical affairs with little movement within the same rank. One major reason for this is that it’s far harder to…

Read More Read More

Has Hunt done enough to survive?

Has Hunt done enough to survive?

Comments 0 Comment

After his performance at the Leveson inquiry, did he do enough to save his position? Labour are planning to hold a commons vote on whether Hunt should be referred for a breach of the Ministerial code, a lot will depends on how the Lib Dems vote on this. The Liberal Democrats said it was “a matter for the prime minister alone to decide how to handle issues of discipline concerning Conservative ministers”. William Hill have a market up on Jeremy Hunt to…

Read More Read More

How London Voted

How London Voted

Comments 0 Comment

Wikimedia Commons Sean Fear reviews the Mayoral and Assembly elections The London Mayoral election was closer than expected. Boris Johnson finished up beating Ken Livingstone by 44% to 40% on first preferences, and by 51.5 to 48.5% on second preferences. This was closer than the polls had predicted. It was nonetheless, an impressive performance for Johnson to hold on, when Labour were making sweeping gains across the country. Johnson is almost unique among Conservatives, in being able to appeal strongly…

Read More Read More

Will Jeremy Hunt soon be an ex-cabinet Minister

Will Jeremy Hunt soon be an ex-cabinet Minister

Comments 0 Comment

Catching up with the first part of Jeremy Hunt’s testimony at the Leveson Inquiry, the one thing that sticks out for me at least is this, Vince Cable was removed from the decision making process for showing prejudice, at the very least, Jeremy Hunt, should have showed a perception of complete neutrality. In politics, occasionally the perception matters more than the facts, and on perceptions alone it doesn’t look good for Hunt. Given that we have the Jubilee long weekend…

Read More Read More

Is it worth taking out Mitt insurance?

Is it worth taking out Mitt insurance?

Comments 0 Comment

David Herdson on the Republican nomination. What are the chances that Romney won’t be nominee? Following his comprehensive win in Texas this week, the media have generally called Mitt Romney as officially over the winning line, with more than half the delegates for the Republican convention later this year. Yes and no. Some states which held caucuses months ago have still to allocate their delegates as the initial vote was just the first stage in the process.  If delegates are…

Read More Read More