Labour maintains its 5% lead from last month. Conservatives 34% (-2%) Labour 39% (-2%) Lib Dems 14% (+3%) The Lib Dems will be very relieved to move away from their fifteen year low with ICM that they achieved last month. Before the adjustment for those who refused to say who they will vote for, the Labour lead would be 10%, which is in line with other pollsters, Â but as the Guardian notes Past experience has demonstrated that this…
James Kelly on the pro-independence campaign If there is to be a Yes vote in the Scottish independence referendum, a prerequisite is surely that the Yes campaign itself is as broadly-based as possible, and extends well beyond the SNP’s ranks. The potential is certainly there – the Scottish Green Party is supportive of independence, and its charismatic leader Patrick Harvie attended the Yes launch, where he was accorded virtual parity with Alex Salmond. The Scottish Socialist Party will also be…
We are going to have to wait The monthly telephone poll by ICM for the Guardian is out this evening but so far the paper has not reported the voting intention figures. It’s putting emphasis on views of global warming which it notes have hardly changed since ICM posed a near-identical question just ahead of the Copenhagen climate conference of 2009. 57% accept that man made global warning is happening. In May the firm had the Tories in their best…
Is this why seniors are being favoured over the young? If the polls are to be believed the age segment which has shifted most to UKIP in recent months has been the oldies. Most days the News International survey by YouGov shows them supporting Farage’s party more than any other sector of the electorate – a trend that’s seen from just about all the pollsters. The oldies are the group which seems to have turned most against Dave in the…
How changing the question added 16 points to NO’s lead There’s new polling out from TNS-BMRB into the form of wording for the Scottish Independence referendum due to take place in October 2014. The firm effectively carried out four separate polls of Scottish voters putting different wording to each. The SNP’s proposed question received the highest level of agreement with independence: Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? Yes 40% No 60% Exchanging the word ‘agree’ for…
The tension continues
Does he do better when he’s out of the country? Cameron’s YouGov approval ratings move to best since March.. Now down to minus 18%. In May was -31%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 24, 2012 Miliband’s YouGov approval ratings drop 2 to -27%. Last week he was = to Dave — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 24, 2012 Clegg’s YouGov approval ratings improve by 2 to minus 53% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 24, 2012 YouGov – Tories take 7% lead…
RealClearPolitics It’s a mugs game – DON’T BET With the Republican nomination settled and the White House election not taking place until November one of the big stories at the moment is who will Romney pick as his running mate. Betting’s been quite lively with one new name coming into the frame after another. It all seems so logical – Mitt, it is said, might have problems with Hispanic voters hence the “obvious” choice becomes Mario Rubio. Another day and…