June Guardian ICM poll

June Guardian ICM poll

Labour maintains its 5% lead from last month.


Conservatives 34% (-2%)

Labour 39% (-2%)

Lib Dems 14% (+3%)


The Lib Dems will be very relieved to move away from their fifteen year low with ICM that they achieved last month.

Before the adjustment for those who refused to say who they will vote for, the Labour lead would be 10%, which is in line with other pollsters,  but as the Guardian notes

Past experience has demonstrated that this is a valuable way of ironing out the wilder vicissitudes of the electoral cycle to give a more reliable prediction.

The 13% of voters who indicate support for smaller parties break down as 3% for the Scottish nationalists (down two points on last month), 2% for Plaid Cymru (up one), 3% for the Greens (unchanged), 3% for Ukip (down one) and 1% for the BNP (unchanged).

As has been noted previously, UKIP seem to do better with online pollsters.

On the economic front,

When asked to put aside party preference and consider only who they would trust to run the economy properly, just 36% of voters endorse David Cameron and George Osborne, which is a substantial eight-point decline on the 44% rating they enjoyed on the same questions just a month ago.

The only comfort for the prime minister and chancellor is that their Labour counterparts have taken an identical eight-point dive in the financial trust stakes, falling from 35% to 27% over the same four weeks, with growing numbers refusing to indicate trust for either team.

However Cameron and Osborne should note, it is their lowest rating (on the economy) in the Guardian/ICM series since the general election.

In December 2011 the Tory lead on the economic front was 21%, and prior to the budget in March the lead was 17%

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,002 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 22-24 June 2012. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. 


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