Why Tim Farron shouldn’t be written off as Nick Clegg’s successor

Why Tim Farron shouldn’t be written off as Nick Clegg’s successor

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The man who squeezed the LAB vote down to almost nothing With Nick Clegg’s YouGov ratings dropping to its lowest level ever, a net -61%, inevitably the speculation in the run up to the Lib Dem conference on Saturday will be on how secure his position is. Could we see a leadership contest this side of the general election? That won’t be decided by delegates but by the party’s 57 MPs many of whom are feeling less than comfortable about…

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The Real Clear Politics polling averages – eight days after the Democratic Convention

The Real Clear Politics polling averages – eight days after the Democratic Convention

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Note you can move the cursor right across the chart to get the figures on any day in the past year. This is the chart for Ohio – a state that over the past 88 years has only been taken by the Republicans when they have won the presidency. But it looks more competitive in Virginia – another key swing state. Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

Conference season will be looked at through the prism of leadership issues

Conference season will be looked at through the prism of leadership issues

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Everything contenders say will be scrutinised & magnified Just six days to be before the start of the 2012 party conference season and my betting is that leadership issues will be a common theme at at least two and possibly three of them. We’ve seen the media obsession with both Boris and Vince and with Labour Ed Miliband has yet to fully convince the home team. An indication that there might be trouble ahead is that with the Tories and…

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Clegg opens the pre-conference rhetoric wars by accusing his coalition partners of being “infantile” over the EU

Clegg opens the pre-conference rhetoric wars by accusing his coalition partners of being “infantile” over the EU

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Public Service Europe We are just one week away from the opening of the party conferences when the main objective of the leaders is to ensure that at the very minimum they get through unscathed with their positions not being undermined. This is the period in the year when it’s all about connecting with your base and the more you can be nasty about the other parties then the better. This is especially so for the coalition partners who’ll be…

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Is Vince the man to save the Tories?

Is Vince the man to save the Tories?

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Would a Cable-led Lib Dems restore the status quo ante? The establishment of Britain’s first coalition government has had many political consequences but one of the most significant has been the shattering of the Lib Dem’s electoral coalition. Since the election, some pollsters suggest they’ve lost more than half their vote, with most of that going to Labour. If translated into actual votes, that would give Labour a substantial election victory in 2015 and leave the Lib Dems returning to…

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Grant Shapps bows to the inevitable on the boundaries

Grant Shapps bows to the inevitable on the boundaries

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ConservativeHome Candidates will be selected on the old electoral map When Nick Clegg made his statement in the middle of the Olympics that his party would be voting against the Boundary Commission proposals when they come to the commons in October 2012 it created something of a dilemma for the Tories. Should they start the process of selecting candidates on the existing boundaries or wait in hope that the news ones would be approved? This was the more so when…

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Just 53 days of campaigning left and the Obama lead over Romney is being sustained

Just 53 days of campaigning left and the Obama lead over Romney is being sustained

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But could the convention bounce evaporate like McCain’s? Above is the latest Real Clear Politics round up of polling in the 2012 White House Race and the message is that the Obama gap has got wider and is being sustained. Only Rasmussen is showing a different picture. The big hope of the Romney camp must be that the boost that the President has received since the convention will, like with John McCain in 2008 be eroded rapidly more than a…

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