Obama’s price eases as we get closer to the first debate

Obama’s price eases as we get closer to the first debate

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There’s a slight narrowing in the polls as well Generally speaking in US presidential elections there are three points when a challenger can make progress against an incumbent. Firstly there’s the buzz surrounding the announcement of the V-P nominee; then there is the candidate’s big speech at his convention and thirdly there’s the White House debates. The first two of those have already happened. The third of the three takes place tonight at the University of Denver. It starts at…

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The media should have been more sceptical about the pre-LAB conference Tory-funded Populus poll?

The media should have been more sceptical about the pre-LAB conference Tory-funded Populus poll?

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Why did the Guardian & others give it coverage Last Saturday in what appeared to be a very aggressive move the Conservative party published the findings of a survey about Ed Miliband and Labour that it had commissioned from Populus. Unlike the firm’s standard voting intention surveys the poll was carried out online. Several papers including the Guardian and the Times gave it quite a bit of coverage and all added to the narrative about Ed Miliband. Populus, of course,…

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Ed’s speech owes as much to Danny Boyle as it does to Disraeli

Ed’s speech owes as much to Danny Boyle as it does to Disraeli

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Tweet The Henry G Manson verdict Today’s speech by Ed Miliband worked. It was a speech many thought he had in him and had seen glimpses of to Labour audiences on the campaign trail to be leader but feared would never be realised. The theme of One Nation Labour is very important because it is going to run right up to the election. Some have described the speech as ‘inspiring’ and even right of centre journalists seem complimentary about the…

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Ed Miliband’s speech will get him a closer in the “Best PM” ratings

Ed Miliband’s speech will get him a closer in the “Best PM” ratings

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Tweet The party looks set to get more behind him The one set of ratings that the Tories always throw at Ed Miliband are those below on who “would be best Prime Minister”. Here EdM has suffered because of the reluctance of many of those saying they’d vote Labour to get behind their man. My guess is that the main impact of this afternoon’s speech, in terms of the all important media narrative, will be that after two years the…

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Ed Miliband has to shake off the blame within two years or else Labour won’t win outright

Ed Miliband has to shake off the blame within two years or else Labour won’t win outright

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Tweet YouGov The time is starting to run out I make no apologies for returning to this subject once again but I regard the above “blame for the cuts” findings as more important than voting intention numbers or leader ratings in pointing to the outcome of the next general election. The Opinium poll for the Observer at the weekend had very similar numbers with just 29% of those sampled blaming the coalition. Today’s YouGov for the Sun has Labour back…

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ComRes: Lib Dems up 3 to 15: Labour lead down to 3: More poor leadership numbers for EdM

ComRes: Lib Dems up 3 to 15: Labour lead down to 3: More poor leadership numbers for EdM

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Has Miliband’s “Budget bonus” finally subsided? There’s a new telephone poll from ComRes for the Independent which has the Lib Dems moving up 3 to 15% at the expense of Labour which sees the smallest gap over the Tories since Osborne’s much-criticised March budget. On leader ratings there’s other bad news for Labour. Asked whether Mr Miliband has what it takes to be a good prime minister, 22% agree and 63% disagree. For Dave the figures are 39% and 52%…

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