So what did PBers think will happen in 2013?

So what did PBers think will happen in 2013?

Comments 0 Comment

PB 2013 competition predictions now out (and apols for delay!) (Firstly, apologies to all for the delay in getting these predictions released – I’ve been absolutely flat out at work with year-end and pretty exhausted, so thanks for your patience!) The pundits taking part in PB’s annual crystal ball-gazing exercise, looked at everything from UK leaders at Christmas and the local elections, to key international elections, and predictions for the opinion polls from ICM, with the questions now featuring UKIP…

Read More Read More

Fancy a bet on the number of CON MPs who won’t support Dave on same-sex marriage?

Fancy a bet on the number of CON MPs who won’t support Dave on same-sex marriage?

Comments 0 Comment

Ladbrokes odds on many Tories will vote against/abstain on same sex marriage vote 2/1 0-150, 2/1 151-189, 6/4 181+ bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2013 And the latest polling on the issue YouGov finds strong support for same sex marriage – except with CON supporters twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2013

Study: Less than one twentieth of Labour’s current polling share is from #GE2010 CON voters

Study: Less than one twentieth of Labour’s current polling share is from #GE2010 CON voters

Comments 0 Comment

Worrying story for LAB that party not picking up enough #GE2010 CON converts.m.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/… . twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2013 The red team is too reliant on non #GE2010 voters and LDs There’s some worrying news for Labour this morning from a Fabian society study of the make-up of Labour’s current polling standing. It finds that the total of CON>LAB switchers since May 2010 has been just 400,000 voters. The study found that about 1.4m of thoose currently…

Read More Read More

The Michael Gove story that’s moved his next cabinet exit price from 25-1 to 5-1

The Michael Gove story that’s moved his next cabinet exit price from 25-1 to 5-1

Comments 0 Comment

This is the Gove story that’s moved the next cabinet exit betting. Did Gove know? .. m.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2013 Is this really going to bring down the minister? Over the past few hours we’ve seen a lot of betting on Michael Gove being the next to leave the cabinet. This afternoon he was at 25/1. He then moved in to 8/1 and is now at 5/1. The devil is in the detail and Gove…

Read More Read More

Replacing Cameron? The polling is clear – Dave is liked more than his party

Replacing Cameron? The polling is clear – Dave is liked more than his party

Comments 0 Comment

A reminder to Tory leadership plotters: The party is a drag on Dave not the other way round – See Ipsos-MORI polling twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2013 Ladbrokes move the “Dave’ll be out” before #GE2015 odds in from 10/1 to 7/1. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2013 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

David Herdson on the great Hillary #WH2016 guessing game

David Herdson on the great Hillary #WH2016 guessing game

Comments 0 Comment

Is Hillary Clinton going to run in #WH2016?On Betfair she’s 5/2 favourite to get nomination even though she’ll be 69 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2013 Would this be a contest too far or success at last? After twenty years at or near the centre of US political life, and four years of Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton can now finally put her feet up and enjoy retirement. Or she can start seriously planning the presidential campaign everyone’s…

Read More Read More