If the #Eastleigh swing is in line with today’s YouGov poll then the Tories would squeeze it by just just one fifth of a percent

If the #Eastleigh swing is in line with today’s YouGov poll then the Tories would squeeze it by just just one fifth of a percent

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Pie chart with today’s YouGov shares showing changes on the national GB figures from #GE2010 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2013 At #GE2010 the Lib Dems held Eastleigh with a lead over the Conservatives of just 7.2%. So the swing required for victory is 3.6%. Today’s YouGov shows a swing to the Tories of 3.8% since 2010 – or just slightly ahead of what is required. The normal way of calculating swings by taking the gap between the…

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The real problem for the Tories over same sex marriage is that once again they appear divided

The real problem for the Tories over same sex marriage is that once again they appear divided

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This must be the most worrying poll finding for the Tories at the moment. They appear divided. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2013 It has been said many times before that the one thing that is a big turn-off for voters is for a party to appear divided. This arguably has a much greater impact on electoral outcomes than a particular stance on a specific issue. So the big danger for the Tories in the same sex marriage…

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The YouGov LAB lead over CON reaches a record high

The YouGov LAB lead over CON reaches a record high

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Today’s LAB lead of 15% in YouGov daily poll is an all-time high for the firm. CON 30%: LAB 45% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2013 @a_c_mcgregor But which was the outlier?The sequence of LAB leads has been 6, 6, 9, 9, 12, 7, 15 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2013 The full YouGov figures for today: CON 30%, LAB 45%, LD 11%, UKIP 9% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2013

Farage is going to find it hard NOT being the Ukip candidate in #Eastleigh

Farage is going to find it hard NOT being the Ukip candidate in #Eastleigh

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This surely must be one for the leader to lead On the face of it the Eastleigh by-election is ideal for Nigel Farage and Ukip. His party, one CCHQ official told me this afternoon, is probably better organised there than anywhere else in the UK. Back in May 2012 Ukip fielded candidates in every single seat in the council elections and achieved a vote share in double figures. On top of that there’s the local connection. Farage was a Ukip…

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Eastleigh – the bookies divide. Hills make CON the 1/2 FAV. Ladbrokes the LDs the evens FAV

Eastleigh – the bookies divide. Hills make CON the 1/2 FAV. Ladbrokes the LDs the evens FAV

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Hills make the Tories 1/2 FAV to wn Eastleigh with LDs 6/4. Ukip 33/1 & LAB 100/1. bit.ly/u6wr8r — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 Ladbrokes make the LDs evens FAV to hold Eastleigh if there is a by-election.6/4 CONS, 6/1 UKIP, 10/1 LAB. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 Which one has got this right?

If Huhne gets 12 months or more then we could see the first CON-LD by-election spat since the coalition was formed

If Huhne gets 12 months or more then we could see the first CON-LD by-election spat since the coalition was formed

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Huhne pleads guilty. If he’s jailed for a year he’ll lose his Eastleigh seat where LDs had maj of 3,864 at #GE2010 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 The full Eastleigh result from May 2010 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 Ladbrokes make the LDs evens FAV to hold Eastleigh if there is a by-election.6/4 CONS, 6/1 UKIP, 10/1 LAB. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 But what about a resurgent Labour?