The Ashcroft poll shows that the Lib Dems can just hold Eastleigh but only if they can get their reluctant supporters to vote

The Ashcroft poll shows that the Lib Dems can just hold Eastleigh but only if they can get their reluctant supporters to vote

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Revised pie chart showing Ashcroft Eastleigh poll BEFORE application of certainty to vote filter twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2013 This will all come down to the GOTV operations We’ve now got the full data from the Lord Ashcroft Eastleigh by-election poll and the detail points to a fascinating and absorbing battle over the next 20 days. The headline figures, as reported last night, had CON 34%: LAB 19%: LD 31%: Ukip 13%. The reason that the Tories…

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The PB Thursday night local elections special

The PB Thursday night local elections special

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Harry Hayfield previews the contests   Village on Stockton on Tees (Ind Defence) Last Local Elections (2011): Lab 27, Ind 13, Con 12, Lib Dem 4. No Overall Control (Labour short by 2) Result at last election (2011): Ind 2,109 (54%) Lab 1,251 (32%) Con 438 (11%) Lib Dem 116 (3%) With a name such as Village, it should come as no surprise to hear that this ward lies in Stockton South constituency (one of the few in the north…

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CON 3 percent ahead in first #Eastleigh poll

CON 3 percent ahead in first #Eastleigh poll

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Pie chart showing Lord Ashcroft’s first #Eastleigh poll with changes on #GE2010. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2013 The polling was conducted on 4 and 5 February by the former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Michael Ashcroft.

We should get the first indications of the way #Eastleigh is going at midnight

We should get the first indications of the way #Eastleigh is going at midnight

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First Eastleigh poll coming at midnight, courtesy of Lord Ashcroft. Will ruffle a few feathers. — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) February 7, 2013 What does Chapman’s “ruffle a few feathers” mean? The big news for Eastleigh punters is that we are going to see the first by-election poll at midnight. It’s been commissioned by Lord Ashcroft which probably means that it was carried out by Populus. Almost certainly it will be a phone poll. The only indication of what it…

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If the betting markets have got #Eastleigh right then the Tories are heading for a senstational by-election victory

If the betting markets have got #Eastleigh right then the Tories are heading for a senstational by-election victory

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Grant Shapps tough comments about the #Eastleigh LDs seems to be the driver of big swing in betting towards CON twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2013 By-election to be held on Feb 28 The tough comments by CON chair, Grant Shapps/Michael Green, saying that Eastleigh voters had been let down by the lies of Lib Dems seem to have been the driver behind today’s betting which now sees the Tories odds-on with all the online firms apart from…

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So far, at least, Clegg and the Lib Dems do not seem to be paying a price for last week’s veto on the boundary changes

So far, at least, Clegg and the Lib Dems do not seem to be paying a price for last week’s veto on the boundary changes

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So far at least last week’s Clegg boundaries veto doesn’t seem to have impacted on the polling twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2013 Is it now just a footnote? Just eight days ago the big political news was the expected rejection by the Commons of plans to reduce the number of MPs to 600 and introduce new boundaries. There was fury from the blue side with words like “betrayal” coming out – yet this maelstrom doesn’t seem to…

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