LAB has “best policies” on Europe according to new Ipsos-MORI poll. See chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 4, 2013 And 28% of of GE2010 CON voters say Ukip’s got best policies Just 48% of #GE2010 CON voters told Ipsos-MORI that their party has best policies on Europe. Worryingly for the blues 28% said Ukip. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 4, 2013
David Cameron channels his inner Lady Thatcher twitter.com/TSEofPB/status… — TSEPB (@TSEofPB) March 3, 2013 Writing in the Sunday Telegraph, David Cameron, says “There has been a barrage of advice this weekend following the Eastleigh by-election” he explains what he will do. The Sunday Telegraph also have a selection of activists, MPs and academics in and around the Conservative Party telling what went wrong at Eastleigh, and what the Tories need to do now if they are to form the next…
In case you didn’t notice there was a by-election the other day in Eastleigh, and UKIP did rather well (as did some of our punters). So now is the time to glance ahead at the markets for UKIP at the next general election, namely whether they will win a seat, and their percentage of the overall vote. There’s been quite a colourful cast of parties who’ve had an election night triumph somewhere at sometime: Communists, Respect, Green, the Common Wealth…
Strorm clouds over Westminster via @edwarddocx twitter.com/EdwardDocx/sta… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2013 The fundamentals that the by-election raises The outcome in the early hours of Friday morning prompts a reflection which should cause some discomfort across most of the political spectrum. Is it actually a feasible project for what Cameron has called “compassionate Conservatism” to win a majority? To discuss this, we don’t need to get into the debate whether Cameron is sincere or merely posing to attract…
Andrew Mitchell’s Sutton Coldfield seat – how the votes split at #GE2010. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2013 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2013 What we need is a contest in a CON stronghold Of all the by-eletions in this parliament what we haven’t seen is one in a rock solid CON stronghold where LAB and the LDs are nowhere. How would Ukip perform in that environment and how would the blue team respond? Well we…
twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 1, 2013 Who will the UKIP prostest vote unwind to, and how far Nick Clegg and Tim Farron have understandably hailed the Lib Dems’ first by-election win in over seven years as “stunning†and “staggering†respectively – after all, their party has not had much to celebrate electorally since 2010 and a win is a win – but Eastleigh was not a great success for any of the major parties. The Tories had the…
How serious is failing in Eastleigh for Cameron? This is the Evening Standard’s front page. twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondo… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 1, 2013 Ladbrokes make it 1/2 that the LDs will hold onto #Eastleighat #GE2015. The Tories are 2/1 & Ukip 16/1. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 1, 2013 Only twice since 1945 has party which has held a seat in an English by-election gone on to lose it at next GE BoltonE’ 60 & Darlington ’83 — Mike Smithson…
Marf thinks it is time to “Hug a Tory” To Henry the lesson is that many voters still hate the Tories David Cameron was chosen to lead the Conservative Party in 2005 because he was seen as a winner. Yet he has not won. He may be Prime Minister but he failed to win an election majority, as did Michael Howard and William Hague before him. We have to go back almost 21 years to the last Conservative majority from…