EdM’s & Yvette’s immigration rhetoric might be putting at risk some of LAB’s new found supporters

EdM’s & Yvette’s immigration rhetoric might be putting at risk some of LAB’s new found supporters

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A danger for LAB in upping the rhetoric on immigration? Chart showing views on issue broken down by #GE2010 vote. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2013 The current LAB panic over Ukip might be counter-productive A main reason why Labour is consistently showing poll leads over the Tories is that the party has attracted so many Lib Dem 2010 voters. If EdM & co are to win back power in 2015 then this segment of the electorate has…

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Harry Hayfield puts the Ukip surge in an historical context

Harry Hayfield puts the Ukip surge in an historical context

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If you’re one of those who really miss by-elections campaigns a reminder from last week. twitter.com/LoonyPartyNews… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2013 Before Mr Farage gets too cock a hoop…. The last few parliamentary by-elections have been all about UKIP. They may not have won a seat, but they have certainly made the headlines. An increase of 14% in Corby, 16% in Rotherham, 24% in Eastleigh, polling over 10% of the vote in six of the last fifteen by-elections,…

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The top GE2015 battlegrounds – where the blues, yellows and reds are most vulnerable

The top GE2015 battlegrounds – where the blues, yellows and reds are most vulnerable

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Many of CON seats at risk are in the shire counties The top 20 most vulnerable CON seats from ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/cons… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2013 The top 20 most vunerable LD seats from ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/libd… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2013 Notice the very different pattern with LAB seats The top 20 most vulnerable LAB seats from ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labo… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2013

At the May 2nd locals the Tories will be defending twice as many seats as LAB and the LDs combined

At the May 2nd locals the Tories will be defending twice as many seats as LAB and the LDs combined

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The 2013 locals – look at how the Tories are defending the most and have most to lose.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ki… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2013 This could/should be the big chance for Farage’s Ukip On Thursday May 2nd the Tories face a massive test at this year’s local elections. The Wikipedia infographic sets it out – the blues will be defending 1.531 seats, the LDs 484 and Labour a paltry 178. The vast bulk of contests will be for…

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It’s the PB NightHawks cafe once again…

It’s the PB NightHawks cafe once again…

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Come in and talk about what you want It’s been a long time since we’ve had the PB NightHawks Cafe – so I thought we should revive. This is the place for the relaxed overnight conversation. Even if you’ve never posted before you are invited to join in. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

Marf on a day with a lot of polling numbers

Marf on a day with a lot of polling numbers

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YouGov data confirms perceptions about Ukip supporters YouGov has put out some aggregate data from its February polling about those members of its online panel telling the firm that they will vote Ukip at the next election. The picture is broadly what we knew: Ukip voters are more likely to be older, male, and to be likely to havw finished their education at 15/16. They are also more likely to have an annual household income of less than £40,000. In…

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It is time to rule Michael Gove out of the Dave replacement betting

It is time to rule Michael Gove out of the Dave replacement betting

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Only Osborne of potential Cameron alternatives polls worse than Michael Gove – yet he’s is 8/1 2nd betting favourite twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2013 He’s simply too unpopular with Tory voters The above is taken from the latest Sunday Times YouGov survey and was one of a number of findings in the poll that raises question marks over whether Michael Gove could be a serious contender to replace Dave. Although the question format is not one I’m…

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Marf on Dave and the Ukip threat

Marf on Dave and the Ukip threat

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If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. Round up latest #GE2015 overall majority betting twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 4, 2013 Above table is from JustBookies which has a wide range of information and offers for punters.