ICM sees Ukip double its April share to a record from any firm of 18 percent

ICM sees Ukip double its April share to a record from any firm of 18 percent

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Farage’s party hits record high with any pollster This evening ICM phone poll for the Guardian is the first survey we’ve had from any firm other than YouGov since Ukip performance in the May 2 local election. The figures above are sensational. ICM the firm that had Ukip with the lowest shares now has them with the highest. Each of the three main parties drops 4% compared with a month ago. The firm has confirmed to me that there has…

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If Clegg does move on my money would now be on Tim Farron

If Clegg does move on my money would now be on Tim Farron

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Michael Gove’s claims about plots to overthrow Clegg haven’t impacted on the betting.Tim Farron still 5/2 favourite twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 13, 2013 He had a good Reynard-gate and Vote2013 aftermath After Michael Gove’s little mischief yesterday in which he talked of a plot to oust Nick Clegg it is probably a good moment to look at the Lib Dem succession. The electoral process involves the party’s MPs making the nomination but the decision being down to a…

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The harsh fact for the Tories is that parties that appear divided get punished by the voters

The harsh fact for the Tories is that parties that appear divided get punished by the voters

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Welcome to a week that looks set to be dominated by Tory divisions on Europe.Familiar? goo.gl/wOAWX twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 13, 2013 The Indy on Sunday’s John Rentoul summed this up well in an excellent blog yesterday:- “That’s the news list gone for most of the week, as the vote on the symbolic Eurosceptic amendment in the Commons will wipe out most else, not least because of the unfamiliarity of a whipped abstention by government ministers. What are…

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Nadine says Dave should dump Nick for the party with zero MPs. Isn’t the reverse more likely?

Nadine says Dave should dump Nick for the party with zero MPs. Isn’t the reverse more likely?

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Nadine says Dave should dump LDs &get into bed with Ukip.Only problem: LDs57 MPs, UKIP 0. goo.gl/IwfWg. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 12, 2013 If Dave followed Nadine & dumped LDs for Ukip then Nick could do reverse. CON MPs+Ukip MPs=305. LAB MPs+LD MPs=313. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 12, 2013

The rise of Ukip and CON backing for same sex marriage: Is it more than a coincidence?

The rise of Ukip and CON backing for same sex marriage: Is it more than a coincidence?

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Just look at how 2010 CON voters view the same sex marriage issue compared with those who now say they are voting for the party. The first group show by 53% to 39% that they are against. Compare that on the drop down menu in the chart above with current CON voters. They are in favour by 48% to 41%. Look also at the emphatic opposition from current UKIP voters. The poll also shows how 24% of those who voted…

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Miliband rules out an EU referendum promise: A strategic mistake or a correct reading of the public mood?

Miliband rules out an EU referendum promise: A strategic mistake or a correct reading of the public mood?

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No EU referendum from Lab – EdM making this the big divider for GE2015. goo.gl/xFQSK twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 11, 2013 Osborne’s biographer, the, FT’s Janan Ganesh thinks that EdM has this right? Tories convinced EdM’s non-offer of referendum will hurt him. If they knew how little ppl care about Europe, their world would fall apart. — Janan Ganesh (@JananGanesh) May 11, 2013 The latest issues polling from Ipsos-MORI Miliband might be right on the salience of the…

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One election defeat then the Right will realign

One election defeat then the Right will realign

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The EU issue the only big thing dividing the Tories from UKIP The Conservative Party is one of the oldest and most successful political parties across the world.  It is so partly because it has had in the past displayed a surprisingly flexible approach in adapting to defeat, and partly because it has ensured it dominated the political field on the centre-right, either by eliminating or allying with rivals.  So can it do so against in response to the rise…

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No boundary changes and no AV: EdM is proving to be a lucky LAB leader

No boundary changes and no AV: EdM is proving to be a lucky LAB leader

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Henry G Manson on how the Tories have made GE2015 easier for Ed There is a bit of talk as to whether certain Conservative MP are able to be endorsed by UKIP and stand with two party emblems next to their name on the ballots paper. This is now possible under updated election law. This week Peter Bone MP took to the airwaves arguing for joint Conservative and UKIP candidates to take advantage of this: “There was a tremendous Conservative…

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