There’ll be no new Eastleigh polls before the election…

There’ll be no new Eastleigh polls before the election…

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Meanwhile news if coming out about postal voting Eastleigh Council say 14,276 postal votes issued, and they’ve had about 8,500 back so far, so about 11 per cent of voters already voted — Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) February 25, 2013 So it’s Survation’s 4% CON lead vs the Populus 5% LD one I’ve done a check round the pollsters with the capabilities to do constituency surveys and the message I’ve got is that there probably won’t be a new survey ahead…

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Rennardgate puts pressure on the Tories to ensure they win Eastleigh

Rennardgate puts pressure on the Tories to ensure they win Eastleigh

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How can they fail with all this happening to the LDs? Terrible front pages for Nick Clegg this morning – 3 days before crucial #Eastleigh by-election twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2013 The appalling coverage for the LDs raises the #Eastleigh stakes for the Tories. They surely HAVE to win now. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2013 In the #Eastleigh betting LDs stable overnight but Ukip tightening. Table based on Betfair last trades. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike…

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Is Clegg going to be able to survive?

Is Clegg going to be able to survive?

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Ladbrokes make it a 6/4 chance that Clegg won’t be Lib Dem leader at the general election twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2013 Inititial reaction to Clegg’s statement on #Eastleigh betting is for LD price to weaken & Tories to tighten twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2013 13% of LAB voters in the Populus #Eastleigh poll said they didn’t even know who Nick Clegg was. When asked they said “never heard of him” — Mike Smithson…

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The Sunday Eastleigh betting tip: Danny Stupple to be top “of the rest” at 4-1

The Sunday Eastleigh betting tip: Danny Stupple to be top “of the rest” at 4-1

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Money piles on independent Danny Supple in the Hills win w/o top 4 market. In from 14/1 to 4/1 following Survation. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2013 Make money reading the poll detail One betting market we haven’t touched on is from William Hill on which candidate outside the “big four” will come on top in Thursday’s by-election. Eagle-eyed punters have noticed that the Survation poll detail shows that the Independent,Danny Stupple, was recording by far the highest…

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David Herdson: Osborne – time to go?

David Herdson: Osborne – time to go?

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You can get 3/1 with PaddyPower that Osborne will not be Chancellor by end of year. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2013 Is it three strikes and out? In practical terms, the loss of the UK’s triple-A credit rating with one of the three main agencies is unlikely to have much impact. France and the USA have both been through the same process without undue trauma, and besides, there’s enough information and interest in the sovereign debt of…

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Eastleigh: Now Survation for the Mail on Sunday has the Tories 4 percent ahead

Eastleigh: Now Survation for the Mail on Sunday has the Tories 4 percent ahead

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Survation Eastleigh poll for Mail on Sunday has Tories 4% ahead. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2013 Is it going to be down to a battle of the pollsters It’s very rare that ahead of a election two pollsters give diametrically opposite projections of the outcome. Well that’s the situation tonight following a new by-election poll just out for tomorrow’s Mail on Sunday which has projected vote shares that are very different from last night’s Populus poll for…

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If Eastleigh goes to Ukip EdM could be the only leader left standing at GE2015

If Eastleigh goes to Ukip EdM could be the only leader left standing at GE2015

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The outcome will change the way we look at GE2015 Consider for a moment what is at stake for the coalition party leaders, Dave and Nick, as they prepare to fight the Eastleigh by-election. This is unlike any of the other by-elections in this parliament because, on paper at least, the battle doesn’t involve the red team as we’ve seen from the latest Populus poll. Until now the general election hopes for the Lib Dems have been kept alive by…

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Very high levels of don’t knows amongst 2010 voters in Times Populus Eastleigh poll suggest that battle is still wide open

Very high levels of don’t knows amongst 2010 voters in Times Populus Eastleigh poll suggest that battle is still wide open

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Pie chart showing breakdown of support in today’s Times Populus #Eastleigh poll twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2013 The only real certainty is that Labour is out of it Overnight I’ve been fortunate to have be given the dataset from today’s Populus Eastleigh poll for the Times and the big message is that this battle is far tighter than the 5% Lib Dem lead might suggest. Very significant numbers of 2010 voters for the three main parties, 30%…

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