Why I’m reluctant to bet on a LAB majority – pt1
One of the biggest challenges about forecasting the next election is the very high proportion of 2019 Conservative voters who are now saying don’t know. What’s important about this group is that they are not saying they will not vote in the next election but only a relatively small proportion of them have actually switched to Labour. If the polls do get it wrong next time then it will be the Tory don’t knows who are responsible. Mike Smithson
Sunak – are we approaching the end days?
This morning sees what are probably the worst front pages for the Tories for a month or so. At the same time the latest R&W poll has just about the biggest “best PM” lead for Starmer that we have seen. The Tories start to look like a party that is tired of being in power and is preparing for opposition. The big question that will increasingly dominate the political conversation is when the general election will be? My view has…
Could there be a LAB-LD pact in mid-Beds?
We are starting to hear calls for the Labour and Lib Dem parties to agree on a single Anti -Tory candidate for the mid-Beds by-election. This, of course, has been created by the resignation of Nadine Dorries On the face of it this seems a logical suggestion but it is hard to see Labour and the LDs agreeing on a deal. Starmer’s party would argue that it came second in the seat at the general election and would therefore stand…
So far this year voting intentions barely moved
Each month David Cowling, ITN’s former Head of Political Research, issues his polling averages table and as can be seen seen it is hard to discern any real change. This stability is helped, of course, by the fact that this is an average Perhaps this is why voting intention polls are getting so little attention and why hardly anybody talks about “the polls”. I cannot remember when a poll was featured on the front page of a paper but things…
Starmer is more popular than Corbyn in London
Back in July Jeremy Corbyn refused to rule out running for Mayor of London next year and I speculated this could potentially hand the London Mayoralty to the Tories and this recent polling from YouGov makes me think Corbyn really could do one final service to the Tory party. With the election now first past the post rather than the supplementary vote system Corbyn standing could hand the Tories the election, he could take enough votes from Khan. Those ratings…
The Day Today government
Rishi Sunak’s main selling point was his competency yet the way the government have handled the RAAC story is pretty bad such as not disclosing the schools impacted but probably the worst blunder is hiding the Secretary of State for Education from the media today. The government need to reassure the public on this and releasing a video (atop this thread) that seems to be have been produced & directed by Chris Morris isn’t the way to go. This is…
Sunak’s constant boasting is not doing him any good
You would have thought that someone who has risen to the top in politics would have a greater sense of self-awareness than that which we see from Sunak week after week after week. His constant boasting about how well he and his government are so out of kilter with what the public actually thinks that he is doing himself a huge amount of damage. It is not helping his party electorally and it is hard to see him having any…