LAB moves to 42pc and UKIP slip to fourth in today’s YouGov

LAB moves to 42pc and UKIP slip to fourth in today’s YouGov

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YouGov voting intentions table showing how support has been moving away from UKIP In June. Back in 4th place today pic.twitter.com/y2mAJO6k0j — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 27, 2013 Labour appears to be benefitting most For the first time since mid-April UKIP has dropped below the LDs in fourth place in the YouGov daily poll. At the same time Labour continues to advance and today’s share and recent results suggest that the party is benefitting most from UKIP going off the…

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Some of the headlines after the big statement are not quite what Osborne must have been hoping for

Some of the headlines after the big statement are not quite what Osborne must have been hoping for

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The Sun’s treatment highlights the danger of Twitter When I first saw Osborne’s pre-sending review statement Tweet with a picture of himself at his desk eating a burger it looked like a mistake. It was just too contrived and in any case the Chancellor is always going to have a battle convincing us that he’s a man of the people. This is how the paper is reporting it:- “The Chancellor tweeted a snap of himself “finalising” work on his spending…

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Methinks that George should have put economics before the politics

Methinks that George should have put economics before the politics

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Osborne making his spending review statement pic.twitter.com/GeC6KVmkwC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 26, 2013 He’s becoming more like Gordon Brown at every turn The thing that struck me most about Osborne’s spending review statement was how little it had to do with the economics and how much it was about setting the political backcloth for GE2015. In this, of course, you have to remember that as shadow chancellor, first under Michael Howard and then under Cameron, Osborne sat across the…

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Revised seat projection approach from Martin Baxter points to UKIP starting to win Commons seats on a 16% share not 23%

Revised seat projection approach from Martin Baxter points to UKIP starting to win Commons seats on a 16% share not 23%

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Electoral Calculus's Martin Baxter now projecting that UKIP could start winning seats on 16% http://t.co/Bpu0246QfP pic.twitter.com/svyj94JJOA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 26, 2013 Time to look at UKIP seat betting? As has been highlighted a fair bit recently UKIP have a real challenge converting the substantial poll shares now being reported into seats because of the way the first past the post system operates with the smaller parties. Now Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus has published a revised approach to…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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  Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you like political betting, welcome to PB, Nobody Does It Better than PB. If you’ve always been a lurker, why not delurk tonight, no one will think You’re So Vain for delurking. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story) David Cameron says “I can…

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Another PB betting tip comes good

Another PB betting tip comes good

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On behalf of punters who took the Ladbrokes 3/1 that Osbo would be called Jeffrey in the Commons I thank LAB's Anas Sarwar — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 25, 2013 Well done to @LadPolitics for paying out so quickly on the "Osborne being called Jeffrey in the Commons" bet — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 25, 2013 It’s not often that apparently long-term political bets come good very quickly and the bookies pay out. Last Thursday I urged everybody to get…

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Lord Ashcroft is releasing his Boris polling in bits: Phase one on which politicians those sampled recognised

Lord Ashcroft is releasing his Boris polling in bits: Phase one on which politicians those sampled recognised

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The 1st phase of @LordAshcroft Boris polling on recognition level of leading politicians. Sample shown pics See pic.twitter.com/HRHEwwibX8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 25, 2013 But does being recognised = electoral success? Michael Ashcroft has decided to tease us with tit-bits with the release of his hyped Boris polling. Instead of issuing it all at once he’s doing it in bits – probably with the aim of building up his Twitter following and mailing list. This morning we get the “who…

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