Tonight’s bumper polling night – all the main online firms have surveys for the Sundays

Tonight’s bumper polling night – all the main online firms have surveys for the Sundays

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@MSmithsonPB Typical. You wait for a poll for ages, and then FOUR come along at once.. — Damian Lyons Lowe (@DamianSurvation) July 13, 2013 This is how each of the firms had it last time Tonight’s is a very unusual one for polls outside general election campaigns. By my reckoning all the main online firms have a got a survey coming out and we should have at least four polls. As well as the usual YouGov for the Sunday Times…

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It’s time for a level playing field when choosing Labour’s next leader

It’s time for a level playing field when choosing Labour’s next leader

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Henry G Manson on what proposed changes could mean Labour’s electoral college for determining its leader is currently divided and weighted into thirds. MPs & MEPs making up one third, party members another & affiliate members (members of trade unions and other socialist societies) the final third. What this means in practice is that the vote of an MP is worth considerably more than the individual vote of a party member and even more so an affiliate member. In 2010…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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  Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker,  This is The Day, you should delurk, hopefully there’ll be a Tsunami of delurkers tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story)   John Kampfner: “Clegg is set to be kingmaker again in 2015″ The Tories’ 35% strategy shows they know…

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Even UKIP voters back the plan that cigarettes be sold in plain packaging

Even UKIP voters back the plan that cigarettes be sold in plain packaging

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Conservative caution on the issue looks like a mistake? It’s being said that one of the reasons why the government has deferred the decision on cigarettes being sold in plain packaging is because of UKIP. CON ministers in particular didn’t want to provide ammunition for the most well-known of political smokers, Nigel Farage. Yet the polling suggests that there’s widespread support for the proposal. The chart above,from the Sunday Times poll on May 10th, shows the party cross-tabs with even…

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A bad GE2015 omen for the Green party: It loses council by-election to LAB in Caroline Lucas’s Brighton constituency

A bad GE2015 omen for the Green party: It loses council by-election to LAB in Caroline Lucas’s Brighton constituency

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LAB activists celebrate in Brighton Pavilion overnight after taking seat from Greens in council council by-election pic.twitter.com/Fn70KY6FEo — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 12, 2013 This must put in doubt Caroline Lucas’s future Could they end up with zero MPs? One of the most sensational results at GE2010 was the victory by the then Green party leader, Caroline Lucas, in Brighton Pavillion. This was a huge breakthrough for the party and followed years of work on the ground winning council seats…

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Elections preview

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Elections preview

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Hanover and Elm Grove on Brighton and Hove (Green Defence) Last Local Election (2011): Greens 23, Con 18, Lab 13 (No Overall Control, Greens short by 5) Ward Result (Emboldened denotes elected) Name of party First Candidate Second Candidate Third Candidate Green Party 2,861 2,800 2,576 Labour 1,662 1,661 1,606 Conservatives 499 441 434 Liberal Democrats 189 159 140 TUSC 156 When Caroline Lucas was elected as the MP for Brighton, Pavilion at the general election in 2010, it marked…

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The coalition could be heading into stormy weather over the Royal Mail privatisation

The coalition could be heading into stormy weather over the Royal Mail privatisation

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The first polling shows the scale of the challenge In the first polling since Vince Cable’s Royal Mail sell-off announcement shows very substantial opposition right across the political spectrum. Even the Tory voters in the poll had more opposing the plan than supporting. With less than 22 months to go before the general election I wonder whether such a plan with so little support is a good idea. Certainly the arguments in favour need to be made more convincing if…

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LAB lead with YouGov down to 5 percent once again

LAB lead with YouGov down to 5 percent once again

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As ever we must not equate correlation with causation Once again the Sun has not disappointed us. Generally we have to wait until 6am for its daily YouGov poll to be released by the pollster. But if it is good for the blues then, like now, it is Tweeted early. The figures are above. The LAB share of 37% is the lowest for the party since May 29th and is 2 down on yesterday. The latest changes are all within…

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