As ever we must not equate correlation with causation
Once again the Sun has not disappointed us. Generally we have to wait until 6am for its daily YouGov poll to be released by the pollster. But if it is good for the blues then, like now, it is Tweeted early.
The figures are above. The LAB share of 37% is the lowest for the party since May 29th and is 2 down on yesterday. The latest changes are all within the margin of error but a 5% gap is on the low side of what we see as is illustrated in my chart below.
We need to see other polls from both YouGov and other firms before jumping to conclusions and the only other survey that’s been published since Falkirk broke was Survation at the weekend which had the Tories at an all time low. Survation is the only firm which includes UKIP in its main prompts and this results in it invariably having the biggest UKIP shares and smaller CON ones.
Almost all the pollsters bar YouGov weight their findings by likelihood to vote.
Whatever this latest YouGov poll will reinforce the positive mood amongst the Tories as they prepare for the long parliamentary holiday.