Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re interested in political betting, and you’re thinking I Don’t Want To Miss a Thing about political betting, then you’ve come to right place. If you’re a lurker, why not Walk This Way and delurk. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story) Why the…
UKIP remain odds-on favourite to win most votes at Euro2014. See pic.twitter.com/xhe95mdgjs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 2, 2013 I still think the Tories could surprise us The 4% average poll decline experienced by UKIP last month has not impacted on the betting on next year’s Euro elections. As the chart shows they are still odds on favorite. My money, at 10/1 is on the Tories coming out on top – a position they’ve achieved in every Euro election since…
Are figures like this the new normality? There’s a general rule about the Sun’s daily poll from YouGov – if the numbers are good for the Tories then they get Tweeted overnight. If not then we usually have to wait until the normal publication time of 6am. The latest figures came out before midnight and show the CON and LAB shares at exactly the same level as they were in Sunday’s poll from the firm for the Sun’s News International…
Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re thinking I Don’t Like Mondays, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’ve always been a lurker, why not delurk Tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story) Tim Montgomerie channels his inner Dan Hodges, Five reasons why Ed Miliband might be easier to beat than Gordon Brown Occasional…
Constituency splits like this could make a LAB majority that bit more challenging http://t.co/ZnJKohMyZh pic.twitter.com/jzEreXoGgU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 30, 2013 Harry Hayfield looks back at “breakaway” candidates Independents have had a remarkably successful run in the last few general elections. Despite the fact that both Dai Davies (Ind, Blaenau Gwent) and Dr. Richard Taylor (Health Concern, Wyre Forest) lost their seats at the last election, they have been the latest in a long line of Independents who have managed…
LAB majority prediction from Electoral Calculus down from 92 to 74 following 4% average decline in UKIP poll share pic.twitter.com/3UwLUREYmb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 1, 2013 Martin Baxter’s “poll of polls” has UKIP down 4 Each month the Cambridge turned city mathematician who has been running Electoral Calculus since the mid 1990s, Martin Baxter, publishes his latest general election projection based on his polling average applied to his Commons seat prediction model. The latest is in the table above. He…
This is one I suggested this morning @LordAshcroft Polling suggestion CON-LAB marginals where the LDs had 15%+ share at GE2010 Seats like this pic.twitter.com/p8iotttWAg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 30, 2013 In a Tweet before the weekend the biggest commissioner of private polling in the UK, Lord Ashcroft, suggested that he was looking out for interesting ideas for political polls. One I put forward is in the Tweet reproduced above – CON-LAB battlegrounds where the LDs performed well in 2010. Given that…
Why a 5% LAB lead might not be enough Today’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has the LAB lead down to just 5% it’s lowest point since November 2012. This has set off the talk once again that an overall majority for Ed Miliband in 2015 might be not as much in the bag as it appeared. For all though the shares in the poll should, according to the seat calculators, produce a comfortable majority there are reasons which…