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Harry Hayfield previews today’s Ynys MÃ´n Assembly By-Election

1/8/2013 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Itâ€™s been quite a while since we have had an Assembly by-election (in fact well over seven years), but Ynys MÃ´n is a by-election without compare. Firstly, the former member is still with us. Ieuan Wyn Jones may have resigned from the Assembly but as the new chairman of the enterprise zone centred on Menai Bridge, who is to say that once that task has been completed he might decide to come back to the Assembly on the regional list…

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Survation poll finds strong support for keeping East Coast main line in public sector

1/8/2013 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

By 58% to 21% those sampled in new Survation poll want the East Coast main line to stay in public ownership pic.twitter.com/aDF8XhuJuw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 1, 2013 The poll gave two options is this form:- The East Coast Main Line should remain in public ownership, as it is now better run than it was when privatised and is returning profits to the Treasury The East Coast Main Line should now go back to being privatised like other rail…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

31/7/2013 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Home of the webâ€™s best political conversation If you’re going to be up, All Night Long, why not relax, and converse into the night on the dayâ€™s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, Hello, Â why not delurk tonight, if you do delurk, I’m sure you’ll be Dancing on the Ceiling in excitement. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story) Boris Johnson will not stand for…

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The national press will be much less influential at GE2015 than in previous elections

31/7/2013 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Look how the industry has declined How the circulations of national newspapers have declined since GE2010 See table pic.twitter.com/4FTguIS1Ld — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 31, 2013 The ground war is going to matter much more than the air war We spend a lot of time on PB trying to assess the impact of specific developments or stories on voting behaviour. One factor that we should bear in mind is that the national media is in a sharp decline. For every five…

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The immigration poster that symbolises the Daveâ€™s dilemma. Moves to win back UKIP switchers risk alienating 2010 LDs

31/7/2013 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The immigration poster at the heart of the CON-LD row. The Tories want it – the LDs are opposed pic.twitter.com/WRIvgDEdWi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2013 How the two key swing groups reacted to the campaign As we keep on saying two big things have happened to voters since GE2010: The switch to Labour by 2010 LD voters following their party’s coalition deal with the Tories and the shrinkage of the CON vote as a result of the UKIP…

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This month’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy has the Tories closing the gap to just 3%

30/7/2013 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The Tories surge as the UKIP decline continues The latest ComRes phone poll for the Independent is out and is in line with the trends we’ve been seeing over the past weeks: the Ukip decline and the Tory recovery. The figures and changes on last month are in the chart above. A 4% increase is outside the margin of error which suggests that real movement had taken place. The poll is not that far off the 36-36 ICM survey a…

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Poor “best PM” ratings: How Ed Miliband can take some comfort from Mrs. Thatcher

30/7/2013 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Putting those “best PM” ratings into context Polling day came a few days later May 3rd 1979. The Tories won an emphatic victory with an 8% lead on votes and an overall majority of 44 seats and went on to secure overall majorities in the next three general elections. They stayed in power for eighteen years. Mrs Thatcher, however, continued to trail in the MORI “best PM” ratings for another year until Jim Callaghan stepped down. Mike Smithson For the…

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The Tory Keogh report offensive appears to have had no impact on the “best party on NHS” ratings

30/7/2013 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

LAB YouGov lead as best party on NHS remains at 12% pic.twitter.com/wzwuLsixfe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2013 One of the big apparent “wins” for the Tories before they broke up for the summer recess was their response on the Keogh report on hospital failings which had happened on Labour’s watch. This it was hoped would help the party eat into the traditional LAB lead that they have on the NHS. The CON attack was high octane and certainly…

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