Latest GE2015 betting
Overall majority CON majority slips back & no overall majority gets tighter on Betfair GE2015 outcome market pic.twitter.com/XDdtvQMYDj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29, 2013
Populus online has CON closing the gap to just 5 pc – but are Tory members raising their expectation too high?
Meanwhile nearly 2 in 3 CON members believe that Dave can hang on Remember that July 5 years ago when the betting was on a CON landslide At this precise point ahead of GE2015 in Jul 2008 William Hills made it a 40% chance that CON would win a 100+ majority The bet was a loser — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29, 2013
The constituencies where the LDs will be most vulnerable at GE2015 and those where they are likely to do best
The incumbency experience for the yellows at GE2010 There’s been some discussion over the weekend about the impact of incumbency and how it can help the parties achieve better outcomes in terms of seats won than the uniform swing might suggest. In a post on Saturday I looked at the GE2010 experience of the Tories and Labour. Today’s it’s the turn of the Lib Dems and the chart above shows how it performed on average in different types of seats…
The big July polling news: The decline of UKIP and the launch of the twice weekly Populus online survey
All the firms have UKIP in the same direction The easing off of UKIP support is one of the factors that has helped the Tories in recent weeks. We should get a sense on Thursday of whether this movement in the polls is reflected in UKIP’s performance in real elections. Two of the County Council divisions won by the purples on May 2nd are up. The ever so stable new polling series from Populus There should be another Populus online…
How the first time incumbency bonus can impact on the uniform national swing seat projections
The 1st time incumbency bonus that could make the Tory GE2015 challenge a bit easier. See what happened at GE2010 pic.twitter.com/q1MoHawG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 27, 2013 Labour incumbents also did better at GE2010 How LAB incumbent MPs did better than their parties at GE2010 pic.twitter.com/y0I2Kw0W — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 27, 2013 The Tories will have many more first time incumbents The charts above are based on data from a post-2010 paper by Prof John Curtice, Dr Stephen Fisher and…
Now is the time to tackle party funding reform
It’s not healthy for parties to be reliant on a few large supporters July 2013 may well come to be seen as the turning point in this parliament. The economy looks to have decisively turned the corner. We only hear talk of triple-dip recessions in the context of no longer talking about triple-dip recessions. Employment is rising, unemployment is falling, growth is accelerating and confidence is returning. One would expect that to feed through to the key battleground of the…
Punters rate a CON majority a bit higher than a week ago
CON majority chances edge up a notch on Betfair. Was 20% last wk – now 23.3%. See table pic.twitter.com/IC5Vv8vQZZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 26, 2013 What will the weekend polling bring? @OpiniumResearch say there are some "interesting movements" in their poll for Observer tomorrow: Last time it was C27/L38/LD6/Ukp19 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 26, 2013
Nick Clegg’s ratings move from the negative to the positive with LD members
55% of LD members polled want Clegg to lead the party into GE2015 while 38% want him to stand down before then. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 26, 2013 58% of LD members polled by LD voice say they're satisfied with Clegg’s leadership a net +18. A year ago the same poll had a minus 2 rating — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 26, 2013 Maybe this just reflects declining membership Every year in the run-up to conference season the LD Voice…