The Next Foreign Secretary betting

The Next Foreign Secretary betting

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Following on from the House of Commons vote on military action in Syria, Labour sources claimed that William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, was “very, very angry” and threatened to quit over David Cameron’s decision to go straight to a parliamentary vote. Based on Yes, Minister’s first rule of politics: never believe anything until it’s been officially denied, the value may have gone out of backing Hague as next out of the cabinet, where he is currently favourite at 5/1, it…

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Sean Fear – a great loss for the Tories and a great catch for UKIP

Sean Fear – a great loss for the Tories and a great catch for UKIP

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One thing that Sean isn’t is a “fruit-cake” On one of the Syrian threads last week long-standing PB regular, Sean Fear, announced that he’d switched from the Tories to UKIP. Sean’s relationship with the site is a long one. Back in 2004 he became just about the first regular Tory poster here at a time when the threads were totally dominated dominated by Labour supporters. He built up a great reputation for his courtesy, his detailed knowledge of elections and…

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YouGov polling round up

YouGov polling round up

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The YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is out. YouGov Sunday Times Poll, Labour gets it first double digit lead since 12/7 Con 31 Lab 41 Lib Dem 9 UKIP 13 — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) September 1, 2013 YouGov changes compared with last poll take pre-Syrian vote Con -2 Lab +4 Lib Dems -1 UKIP +1 — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) September 1, 2013   As ever, this is one poll, we need to see more polling to see if this is an outlier or the…

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Survation poll out

Survation poll out

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There’s a new poll out by Survation for the Mail on Sunday. The fieldwork was entirely after the government defeat. Survation interviewed 1002 respondents online on Friday afternoon and evening seeking their reactions to the Government’s House of Commons defeat over Syria. As we can see there’s been very little movement in VI. Survation for The Mail on Sunday – VI (Change since August 4th) CON 29% (+1) LAB 37% (+1) UKIP 17% (-1) LD 11% (NC) AP 7% (NC)…

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Corporeal asks: Was this the best possible political result for David Cameron?

Corporeal asks: Was this the best possible political result for David Cameron?

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  Government defeats in House of Commons vote are usually a blow to the sitting Prime Minister, leaving a scar of weakness, and requiring a scramble to reformulate policy to account for the set-back and fill the gap left by the defeated motion. A coalition government adds another level of questions about what this means in terms of unity. In this case however, I wonder if David Cameron will benefit from losing this vote far more than if he’d managed…

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A bad day all round, except for the result

A bad day all round, except for the result

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David Herdson wonders if the biggest loser was Obama It’s unlikely that many of those involved in Thursday’s debate and vote will look back on their participation with pride.  Quite why parliament was recalled early when it was due to return next Monday anyway remains unclear, particularly given that the UN inspectors’ report should be published at the weekend or shortly after.  The assumption has to be that irreversible steps were planned before next week, probably at the initiative of…

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After the Syria Vote: What happens next in the UK

After the Syria Vote: What happens next in the UK

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Here's a montage of the most recent front pages I've seen. #Syria http://t.co/EkYjORp06g pic.twitter.com/sRvJIGQyNm — Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) August 30, 2013 Looking at those front pages, it doesn’t make for pleasant reading for David Cameron today. As Janan Ganesh writes Defeat in Thursday night’s parliamentary vote on the principle of military action in Syria is not an existential wound for David Cameron, whatever his more excitable enemies say. But, after several months of good form, the prime minister looks weaker than at…

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Labour can’t afford a Shadow Cabinet anchored to the past

Labour can’t afford a Shadow Cabinet anchored to the past

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  The debate on Syria has highlighted one of the advantages of Ed Miliband’s leadership. As someone who was not even an MP or in the country when the decision to invade Iraq was taken, the Labour leader is able to make policy decisions today free from some of the political shackles of the past. This is far easier for him than his former leadership rivals (with the exception of Diane Abbott).  It’s far harder to hit a moving target…

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