How to get an effective 2-1 that CON will win most seats

How to get an effective 2-1 that CON will win most seats

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Intriguing new GE2015 market from PaddyPower – will the winner be the loser? See pic.twitter.com/gPiVriyCfW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2013 CON cannot secure most seats if it doesn’t win on votes We all know that the national vote thresholds for winning most seats and and overall majority are lower for LAB than CON. Part of the reason is unequal sized constituencies though a much bigger factor is that LAB voters are much more reluctant to turnout where the…

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Local By-Election Preview : September 17th 2013

Local By-Election Preview : September 17th 2013

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Maybury and Sheerwater on Woking (Lib Dem Defence) Last Local Election (2012): Con 21, Lib Dem 15 (Con overall majority of 6) Results of previous electoral cycle: 2010: Con 2,034 (43%), Lib Dem 1,871 (39%), Lab 525 (11%), UKIP 305 (6%) 2011: Con 1,061 (31%), Lab 1,016 (30%), Lib Dem 899 (26%), UKIP 434 (13%) 2012: Lib Dem 1,088 (34%), Lab 1,072 (34%), Con 685 (21%), UKIP 345 (11%) Candidates duly nominated: Norman Johns (Lib Dem), Rashid Mohammed (Con), Stephen…

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Lib Dem Conference: Once more unto the breach

Lib Dem Conference: Once more unto the breach

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Lib Dem Conferences have always been activist focussed, less so since entering government certainly but (possibly excepting a couple of larger set piece speeches) the primary audience is usually the one sitting in the room wearing garishly yellow lanyards. What has come to the fore through those speeches, fringe events, and the conference bar (always the best place to feel the tone of a conference) is, even more than usual, is one of defiance and rallying troops for the ground…

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Corporeal on the LSE polling seminar

Corporeal on the LSE polling seminar

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A couple of days ago I was lucky enough (genuinely) to attend (sneak into the back of) a polling seminar hosted at the LSE featuring professional pollsters, academics, and a few assorted others like Mike (also complimentary wine). To be specific it was hosted somewhere in the depths of an especially labyrinthine and oddly signposted LSE building that left attendees wandering the corridors in search of rescue. LSE is one of the universities that is attempting to engage with the…

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The September ICM telephone poll sees almost no change

The September ICM telephone poll sees almost no change

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Back in July ICM had the two main parties on 36% so there has been some change since. On a positive note for the blues 40% backed the Tories for economic competence compared with 28% in June. LAB saw increase in credibility to 24% from 19% over same period ICM net economic confidence rating moves to +1% In Dec 2012 it was – 11% Mike Smithson

The Lib Dems are in no mood to change their leader

The Lib Dems are in no mood to change their leader

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Nick Clegg appealing to delegates at LD conference to back him on economy pic.twitter.com/ILLwDLrkgE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2013 Clegg looks safe until GE2015 If there was going to be a threat to Nick Clegg’s leadership at the annual conference in Glasgow it was going to come in this morning’s debate on economic strategy. There was a very strong move to oppose official policy but in the end the votes went with the leadership. It was an easy…

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On the day of the LDs crucial economy debate new polling puts more pressure on Clegg

On the day of the LDs crucial economy debate new polling puts more pressure on Clegg

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Unlike the red and blue teams the LD conference has a formal policy making function with the result, as we’ve seen in the past, that it can embarrass the leadership. This year’s event, here in Glasgow, has so far gone okay for Clegg with votes on energy policy and tuition fees taking a pragmatic line. This morning things might just be different as delegates discuss and vote on the central issue of economic strategy. With Cable and Clegg said to…

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