politicalbetting.com – Page 1429 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Cabinet next exit betting – a nice little earner for the bookies

8/10/2013 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

What the market looked like in mid-June Next cabinet exit betting The bookies clean up yet again Here are Ladbrokes prices from June 17th Michael Moore 25/1 pic.twitter.com/nRpxtqnlBe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 8, 2013 Yesterday was a big day in political betting when something happened that we see so rarely – a market came to fruition and those who got it right can look forward to their winnings. 2013 has been a pretty poor year for those who like to bet…

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PB Nighthawks is now open – And a new Marf cartoon on the reshuffle

7/10/2013 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Home of the webâ€™s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the dayâ€™s events in PB NightHawks. To all you lurkers, nighthawks gives you the opportunity, hopefully lots of you willÂ Break Like the Wind and delurk. If you do delurk, I’m sure you’ll end up saying, Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight, with your posts. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link)…

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Odds on Osborne as Cameron’s successor tighten as he takes an even greater grip on his party in the reshuffle

7/10/2013 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

Ladbrokes: Next Tory leader selected odds 12/1 Osborne (cut from 16) 33/1 Esther McVey (cut from 50) 33/1 Afriyie http://t.co/Wp8AiqMFLH — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) October 7, 2013 Osborne, Osborne everywhere! Now @matthancockmp goes up a notch. (BTW, a very good appointment.) #reshuffle #Octopus — Paul Goodman (@PaulGoodmanCH) October 7, 2013 Staunch Cleggite Jeremy Browne being replaced at Home Office by Norman Baker. Biggest shock of reshuffle so far #reshuffle — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) October 7, 2013 If Jeremy Browne has been sacked cd…

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The issue that looks set to decide GE2015 – the size of the UKIP vote

7/10/2013 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

Ladbrokes http://t.co/5ytVwnI62K betting on UKIP's national vote share at GE2015 5-10% at 6/4 the favourite. See pic.twitter.com/Cd6jznFrzU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 7, 2013 The smaller the UKIP vote the better it is for the blues With the vast bulk of the 2010 LDs who switched to LAB in the first year of the coalition sticking with their new allegiance the big decider at GE2015 looks set to be how UKIP perform in the key battlegrounds. As Lord Ashcroft’s polling…

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It looks like Dave’s reshuffle is really on…

6/10/2013 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

From @isabelhardman: Chloe Smith and John Randall quit government ahead of reshuffle http://t.co/bbVLMvDeND — Coffee House (@Spectator_CH) October 6, 2013 Feels like no 10 has started its reshuffle… During the first episode of Homeland. Grrr. Box set PM clearly doesn't watch live telly. — Allegra Stratton (@BBCAllegra) October 6, 2013

Arguably the biggest development in the past month has been that LAB supporters have begun to have confidence in their leader

6/10/2013 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

From a net minus 4 to plus 41 in just 30 days @MSmithsonPB Interesting, and clearly will be important for Labour hardening up its vote for #GE2015. Suspicion so far that it has been soft — Will Jennings (@drjennings) October 6, 2013

YouGov finds big decline in those thinking that LAB will win a majority

6/10/2013 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

How the landscape has changed since the May locals Today’s YouGov for the Sunday Times with changes on Thursday’s poll:- CON 33-2 LAB 38= LD 11+2 UKIP 13+3 It also sees quite strong backing from supporters of all parties for Ed Miliband in his battle with the Daily Mail. Looking forward the poll repeated a question last asked in the immediate aftermath of the May local elections – “What do you think is the most LIKELY result of the next…

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If Farage doesn’t take part in the debates then it will only make UKIP supporters feel more alienated

5/10/2013 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

It could make UKIP waverers more determined to vote We now have progress with leaders TV debates for GE2015 with Sky proposing three sessions and fortnightly intervals starting on April 2nd 2015. The big issue is what they do with Nigel Farage. His party holds no seats at Westminster though it looks set to do very well at Euro2014 and could, indeed, come out as top party. It has said that it will be contesting all seats and its polling…

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