Odds on Osborne as Cameron’s successor tighten as he takes an even greater grip on his party in the reshuffle

Odds on Osborne as Cameron’s successor tighten as he takes an even greater grip on his party in the reshuffle

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Ladbrokes: Next Tory leader selected odds 12/1 Osborne (cut from 16) 33/1 Esther McVey (cut from 50) 33/1 Afriyie http://t.co/Wp8AiqMFLH — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) October 7, 2013 Osborne, Osborne everywhere! Now @matthancockmp goes up a notch. (BTW, a very good appointment.) #reshuffle #Octopus — Paul Goodman (@PaulGoodmanCH) October 7, 2013 Staunch Cleggite Jeremy Browne being replaced at Home Office by Norman Baker. Biggest shock of reshuffle so far #reshuffle — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) October 7, 2013 If Jeremy Browne has been sacked cd…

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The issue that looks set to decide GE2015 – the size of the UKIP vote

The issue that looks set to decide GE2015 – the size of the UKIP vote

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Ladbrokes http://t.co/5ytVwnI62K betting on UKIP's national vote share at GE2015 5-10% at 6/4 the favourite. See pic.twitter.com/Cd6jznFrzU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 7, 2013 The smaller the UKIP vote the better it is for the blues With the vast bulk of the 2010 LDs who switched to LAB in the first year of the coalition sticking with their new allegiance the big decider at GE2015 looks set to be how UKIP perform in the key battlegrounds. As Lord Ashcroft’s polling…

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It looks like Dave’s reshuffle is really on…

It looks like Dave’s reshuffle is really on…

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From @isabelhardman: Chloe Smith and John Randall quit government ahead of reshuffle http://t.co/bbVLMvDeND — Coffee House (@Spectator_CH) October 6, 2013 Feels like no 10 has started its reshuffle… During the first episode of Homeland. Grrr. Box set PM clearly doesn't watch live telly. — Allegra Stratton (@BBCAllegra) October 6, 2013

Arguably the biggest development in the past month has been that LAB supporters have begun to have confidence in their leader

Arguably the biggest development in the past month has been that LAB supporters have begun to have confidence in their leader

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From a net minus 4 to plus 41 in just 30 days @MSmithsonPB Interesting, and clearly will be important for Labour hardening up its vote for #GE2015. Suspicion so far that it has been soft — Will Jennings (@drjennings) October 6, 2013

YouGov finds big decline in those thinking that LAB will win a majority

YouGov finds big decline in those thinking that LAB will win a majority

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How the landscape has changed since the May locals Today’s YouGov for the Sunday Times with changes on Thursday’s poll:- CON 33-2 LAB 38= LD 11+2 UKIP 13+3 It also sees quite strong backing from supporters of all parties for Ed Miliband in his battle with the Daily Mail. Looking forward the poll repeated a question last asked in the immediate aftermath of the May local elections – “What do you think is the most LIKELY result of the next…

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If Farage doesn’t take part in the debates then it will only make UKIP supporters feel more alienated

If Farage doesn’t take part in the debates then it will only make UKIP supporters feel more alienated

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It could make UKIP waverers more determined to vote We now have progress with leaders TV debates for GE2015 with Sky proposing three sessions and fortnightly intervals starting on April 2nd 2015. The big issue is what they do with Nigel Farage. His party holds no seats at Westminster though it looks set to do very well at Euro2014 and could, indeed, come out as top party. It has said that it will be contesting all seats and its polling…

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Dave’s lead as “Best PM” is nearly wiped out when you add Nigel Farage to the equation

Dave’s lead as “Best PM” is nearly wiped out when you add Nigel Farage to the equation

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Tracker questions now need to include UKIP Even when things were at their worst in the polls for the Tories party loyalists clung onto to one polling tracker – who voters saw as “Best PM” where as the chart shows Dave had enjoyed large and in the summer increasing leads. This helped fuel the strong pro-Dave narrative that we saw in the build-up to the conference season. Ed could never be PM, many were arguing, because he was so far…

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