The issue that looks set to decide GE2015 – the size of the UKIP vote
Ladbrokes http://t.co/5ytVwnI62K betting on UKIP's national vote share at GE2015 5-10% at 6/4 the favourite. See pic.twitter.com/Cd6jznFrzU
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 7, 2013
The smaller the UKIP vote the better it is for the blues
With the vast bulk of the 2010 LDs who switched to LAB in the first year of the coalition sticking with their new allegiance the big decider at GE2015 looks set to be how UKIP perform in the key battlegrounds.
As Lord Ashcroft’s polling of key battlegrounds shows so vividly last month the rise has been the driver of LAB’s lead. His polling suggested that EdM’s party was 14% ahead in the 32 key CON target seats. At GE2010 the Tories has an average 3% lead there.
Quite simply the Tories have to eat into the UKIP support base if they are to have any chance.
So for those who think that Cameron and his team will be able to make serious inroads than the bets in the 0-5% and the 5-10% ranges might be good value.
My view is that UKIP will do better away from the main battlegrounds where the CON and LAB campaigns will be far less intensive.
The Lord Ashcroft polling found that when the “own constituency” question was asked the UKIP share in these key marginals dropped from 14% to 11%. The trouble was that the Tories didn’t benefit.
The CON message will be simple: Vote UKIP and end up Ed Miliband as PM.
Mike Smithson
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