Marf on energy bills and LAB hits 40 percent in today’s YouGov
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GE2015 projections based on swing-back to the incumbent government are irrelevant: The incumbent government isn’t standing
Final week campaign poster – May 2010 All parties will be campaigning for change In recent weeks there have been a number of GE2015 projections all based on one common idea – that incumbents governments recover in the final period leading up to polling day. Certainly that happened in 1992, 1997, 2001 and 2010, but we didn’t see that effect in 2005. Looking forward to May 2015 one big ingredient is missing – there is no incumbent government to be…
The issues: Which parties are seen to be best
Will the Tory strengths trump the LAB ones or vice-versa? The chart above shows the latest YouGov best party on specific issues tracker. Today’s figures are not remarkable but I thought it useful to post as a reference point. It it perhaps worth pointing out that in the first year of this parliament the Tories regularly led on education and there was a poll where they were in the lead on the NHS. The CON best issues remain the economy,…
There’s a mismatch between GE2015 overall outcome betting and the odds that can be had in individual seats
Richard Nabavi says don’t bet on a Tory majority The best odds you can currently get on a Conservative majority at the next election are 4.0 (3/1 in old money), which in isolation is a good bet if and only if you think the probability of a 2015 Cameron majority is higher than 25%. Of course, a Tory majority is not something which can happen independently of other eventualities; it can happen only if the Conservatives can hold on to…
PB Nighthawks is now open
Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. By the way, if you’re a lurker, why not delurk Right Now, It’s Ok to Delurk, you will feel Whole Again once you’ve delurked. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) David Cameron should look to Harold Macmillan for political guidance Why Cameron must fear a narrow…
YouGov finds overall backing for nuclear power with UKIP voters the keenest
Time to have a dabble on Tristram Hunt at 33-1 for next LAB leader
LAB leader prospect Tristram Hunt went to Cambridge which last had a PM 78 years ago pic.twitter.com/jlbRSHyABn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 21, 2013 Overnight I’ve put bets on the new shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt, at 33/1 as next LAB leader. From what I can see he is only listed at Ladbrokes and PaddyPower both of whom have got him at 33/1. Hunt came to public prominence as a TV historian. He’s telegenic and, as you’d expect a good…
Why Clegg thinks there are votes to be had in pursuing a fight with Gove on free schools
Educational issues have a particular salience amongst 2010 LDs 2010 LDs more likely to back LAB on education than current ones The paramount objective of the Lib Dems is to minimise seats losses at the general election and the argument with Gove on free schools helps in a number of ways. What we are talking about is niche marketing, sending signals to significant groups of electors in the seats that will matter to the party. In the key CON-LD battlegrounds…