politicalbetting.com

Hello PB’ers, This is Robert, Mike’s son and the technical administrator for the site. I’d just like to use the site as an advertisement for a business I’m involved in, Crowdscores. The idea is simple: crowdsourced football scores. Fans watching games record goals, and the like, and this means that we have the fastest football scores around. (We also have a nice line in fan generated commentary.) Currently, we do Premiership, SPL, and European games. But this idea is perfectly…

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Today’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has LAB lead at 6 Con 33% Lab 39% LD 9% UKIP 12% By 73% to 19% YouGov finds backing for special profits tax on energy firms to help elderly with their bills

60% back the abolition of green taxes By 60% to 18% those in the poll said they opposed when asked this question: “At the moment the average annual household energy bill includes £128 in “green taxes”, used to subsidise items such as wind farms, and other government measures. By 2020, this figure will be around £270 Do you support or oppose the existence of these charges?” Just 25% told the firm that Cameron was rolling back green taxes because he…

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If this remains then CON majority chances are very slim Dr Stephen Fisher has responded to the first wave of comments on his new GE2015 prediction model which suggests that the Tories have a 58% chance of a majority. I think a key issue about the Fisher approach is the one featured in the chart above – 2010 LDs who’ve switched to LAB. The scale of the LD>LAB switchers is huge. Currently it is greater than the cumulative increase in…

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I have enormous respect for political scientist, Oxford's @StephenDFisher He was key member of team behind the GE2010 exit poll — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2013 GE2015 forecast from Oxford's @StephenDFisher Con : 337 Lab : 265 LD : 21 Con majority of 24 http://t.co/t833vBpSsa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2013 You can read Stephen’s piece and all the projections here.

Loughborough, Hastings on Charnwood Result: Labour 554 (61%), Conservative 127 (14%), UKIP 111 (12%), British Democrats 85 (9%), Liberal Democrats 26 (3%) Labour HOLD Shepshed West on Charnwood Result: Labour 683 (48%), Conservative 560 (39%), Liberal Democrat 178 (13%) Labour GAIN from Conservative Waterloo on Havant (% Change on 2012 election) Result: Conservative 693 (44% -16%), Liberal Democrat 446 (29% +13%), UKIP 296 (19%), Labour 129 (8% -16%) Conservative HOLD Swing: 15% from Con to Lib Dem Bovey on Teignbridge…

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