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Exactly six months to go: The EU elections that could make or break UKIP

22/11/2013 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

Latest EP2014 odds. UKIP now 11/10 favourites to win most votes pic.twitter.com/ldAe5G0BZA — PolPics (@PolPics) November 22, 2013 But why the absence of polling? On May 22nd next year the whole of the UK will be voting in the elections for the European Parliament yet there’s been very little media coverage and almost no polling. Whilst we have eight or nine Westminster VI polls a week you have to go back until early October to find the last EP2014 survey….

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Henry G Manson on Dave and green policy

22/11/2013 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

http://t.co/OxTRsJxzZB pic.twitter.com/iypuzRp11P — PolPics (@PolPics) November 22, 2013 Was this a ‘Ratner’ moment for the PM? Gerald Ratner once famously described his jewellery as “total crap” in an after-dinner speech before seeing the remarks picked up in the press. He mocked his own products and in doing so he fatally undermined his relationship with his customers, which led to a collapse in the businesses’ fortunes. The Sun’s front page report that Cameron is said to be going around Number 10…

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Local By-Election Preview : November 21st 2013

21/11/2013 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Pontrilas on Herefordshire (Con Defence) Result of last election (2011): Con 30, Ind 23, Lib Dem 3, Lab 1, Green 1 (Conservative overall majority of 2) Result of ward at last election (2011): Con 728 (46%), Ind 515 (33%), IOC 337 (21%) Candidates duly nominated: Elaine Godding (Ind), Jon Norris (It’s Our County), Elissa Swinglehurst (Con) For a profile of this county’s past elections, please see my posting for November 7th 2013 Golcar on Kirklees (Lab Defence) Result of last…

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At GE2010 incumbent CON incumbents performed better than their party by an average 0.3 pc

21/11/2013 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

I back call by @ATCooperNo10, co-founder of British Polling Council & ex No10 that the CON incumbency polling be published — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 21, 2013 First time incumbents saw a bigger boost 1.6% The above data is from a post-GE2010 analysis by Prof John Curtice, Dr Stephen Fisher and Dr Rob Ford and shows how CON incumbents did compared to the overall increase in the party’s GB vote share. As can be seen the biggest increase was by…

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LAB YouGov lead back up to 8pc but Dave retains his 11pc “Best PM” lead

21/11/2013 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

So it’s back to where we were This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun suggests that yesterday’s 4% CON deficit might have been a blip though all changes are within the margin of error. We also have the latest YouGov “Best PM” tracker which sees 34% saying Cameron and 23% saying EdM – both down one point. 95% of CON voters named Dave while 63% of LAB ones named Ed – findings that will continue to give hope to the…

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Nighthawks is now open

20/11/2013 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Home of the webâ€™s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the dayâ€™s events in PB NightHawks. To you lurkers, why not delurk. Lurking, is Another World to posting, I, Believe, your contributions will be enhance PB, Hopefully this will Galvanise you to delurk. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) PMQs verdict: Ed Miliband came prepared for a â€œnightmareâ€ â€“ and duly…

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LAB majority odd tighten. Hung parliament remains favourite

20/11/2013 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

A LAB majority now a 38.5% chance on Betfair – up 3% in a week Hung parliament at 39.1% still favourite pic.twitter.com/l0bwq66tJr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2013 There’s been a move back to a LAB majority on the Betfair GE2015 outcome market. The price had moved in by about 3% in the past two days. A hung parliament remains the favourite. The chart above is from the Betfair exchange and covers a period of about 3 years. Unfortunately there…

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Some brighter polling news for the Tories – today’s YouGov has the LAB lead down to just 4pc

20/11/2013 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

But is it blip or start of a trend? After a dark November of polls for the Tories YouGov today gives them their best figures of the month. Like all such moves we have to be careful before jumping to conclusions. It might just be a blip or it could be a first indicator that the better economic news is beginning to resonate. Dave Cameron and his team will surely be hoping for the latter. Interestingly the proportion of 2010…

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