Tomorrow’s 2013 SPOTY election: David Herdson says that the value bet could be that Murray doesn’t win

Tomorrow’s 2013 SPOTY election: David Herdson says that the value bet could be that Murray doesn’t win

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pic.twitter.com/wRDO5Y8pyA — PolPics (@PolPics) December 14, 2013 The BBC’s Sports Personality of the Year (SPOTY) is, like X Factor, Strictly Come Dancing, Big Brother or Eurovision, very much an election.  As with all elections, working out the likely chances comes down to correctly understanding four things: the candidates, the campaigns, the voters, and the electoral system. Since Andy Murray won Wimbledon in the Summer, he’s been extremely long odds on to win, to the extent that if you believe the…

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Local By-Election Results : December 12th 2013

Local By-Election Results : December 12th 2013

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Topcliffe on Hambleton (Con Defence) Candidates duly nominated: Garry Key (Con) Result: Conservative HOLD elected unopposed Hornby Castle on Richmondshire (Con Defence) Result: Conservative 127 (46%), Independent 98 (36%), United Kingdom Independence Party 50 (18%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 29 (10%) Iver Village and Richings Park (Lib Dem Defence) Result: Conservative 422 (47%), United Kingdom Independence Party 377 (42%), Liberal Democrats 101 (11%) Conservative GAIN from Liberal Democrats with a majority of 45 (5%) Bedworth West on Warwickshire…

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Latest survey from Britain most long-established pollster set to increase concerns in the red team

Latest survey from Britain most long-established pollster set to increase concerns in the red team

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Chart from Ipsos-MORI showing contrast between the all naming a party and those 100% certain to vote pic.twitter.com/ksFSvlSpv2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 13, 2013 EdM the only leader with declining satisfaction ratings Chart showing latest Ipsos-MORI leader ratings which are widely regarded as the gold standard pic.twitter.com/5JoSZjsGF2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 13, 2013 Once again EdM struggling to maintain confide of LAB voters See Ipsos-MORI chart pic.twitter.com/yvw4Yu1wKi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 13, 2013 Economic optimism still strong…

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Survation poll of NON-VOTERS shows that LAB is losing most from untapped support

Survation poll of NON-VOTERS shows that LAB is losing most from untapped support

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The coalition parties are losing the least Survation have got a poll out for Lodesetone showing the party choices of non-voters. The figures are in the chart above and as can be seen nearly a third of the non-voters said Labour. The main point of the poll is to show what would happen if turnout levels could be increased. So Labour seem to be the party that’s losing most from this untapped source of support with the Lib Dems losing…

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Local By-Election Preview: December 12th 2013

Local By-Election Preview: December 12th 2013

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Topcliffe on Hambleton (Con Defence) Result of last election (2011): Con 39, Ind 3, Lib Dem 2 (Conservative overall majority of 34) Result of last election in ward (2011): Con 550 (75%), Lib Dem 185 (25%) Candidates duly nominated: Garry Key (Con) Result: Conservative HOLD elected unopposed Hambleton is quite accustomed to the concept of elected unopposed being a rural area in the North of Yorkshire, however as their colleagues in Richmondshire may find being elected unopposed can have it’s…

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How the crucial swing voter group of 2010 Lib Dems rates the Conservatives and Labour on key policy areas

How the crucial swing voter group of 2010 Lib Dems rates the Conservatives and Labour on key policy areas

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Following on from this morning’s post on the importance of 2010 Lib Dems to Labour’s current polling I’ve now been looking at policy areas to see how this crucial group of potential swing voters view the blues and the reds. Quite simply I’ve taken the LD 2010 responses from this week’s YouGov “which political party you think would handle XXXX best?” findings and divided the total saying CON by those saying LAB. The results are in the chart above. As…

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As we move another month closer the killer fact for CON remains: LAB’s vote is still buttressed by LD switchers

As we move another month closer the killer fact for CON remains: LAB’s vote is still buttressed by LD switchers

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The Autumn Statement did nothing to budge them We are now within 17 months of the election and the overall situation remains the same. Even if all the 2010 CON voters who’ve moved to LAB returned it would make very little difference to Labour’s majority winning vote share. Those 2010 LD switchers remain. This is the first full parliament where we’ve been able to track voter segments by past vote because the pollsters didn’t start giving us this information until…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. To you lurkers, To Cut A Long Story Short,  why not delurk? It’s True if you delurk, your contributions will be like Gold. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) PMQs: Inspired by Mandela, Cameron wanted to forgive his opponents Red Ed and Redder Ed: Cameron…

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