The final Bown-funded constituencty polls are out tonight – perhaps they’ll give us pointer to which Farage will choose

The final Bown-funded constituencty polls are out tonight – perhaps they’ll give us pointer to which Farage will choose

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The latest round of Survation constituency polls should give us an idea where Farage will stand PaddyPower betting pic.twitter.com/CwghokJpBE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2013 I’m expecting 4 single-seat polls tonight all funded by the UKIP donor, Alan Bown. My guess is that Farage will opt for one of the Kent seats where he has roots. We had a Thanet South poll three weeks back which looked promising for him. Maybe one of the latest batch of polls will tell…

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Andy Murray’s SPOTY victory could help the IndyRef NO campaign

Andy Murray’s SPOTY victory could help the IndyRef NO campaign

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Absolutely ruddy shameless pic.twitter.com/u15I1LFjtd — Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) July 7, 2013 Sport is very much part of national identity If you don’t believe that sport and politics are intricately linked just look at the Tweet above from the Mail’s Matt Chorley a few minutes after Andy Murray’s historic victory at Wimbledon in July. That Cameron was pictured against the backcloth the Saltire next to a smiling Alex Salmond was widely seen as a political coup for the SNP leader. Clearly…

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My poll finding of the Year – the massive gap between perception and reality over the nature of the UK

My poll finding of the Year – the massive gap between perception and reality over the nature of the UK

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Great slide from @IpsosMORI on how very wrong the public is about the UK pic.twitter.com/s9jZgef27v — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 14, 2013 The Tweet that had me trending on Twitter Yesterday morning I posted the above Ipsos-MORI chart which within a few hours became something of a Twitter sensation. By early afternoon it made me the most referred to Tweeter in the UK and it continues to have a big impact. The chart was taken from an Ipsos-MORI review of…

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The 2011 Holyrood election: When Scottish Labour moved from a 14pc YouGov lead to being 18pc behind in just 11 weeks

The 2011 Holyrood election: When Scottish Labour moved from a 14pc YouGov lead to being 18pc behind in just 11 weeks

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How polling leads can just evaporate The chart shows the sequence of YouGov Holyrood regional vote shares for LAB and SNP in the eleven weeks running up to the May 2011 elections. The movement is startling and even YouGov’s eve of poll survey, with an SNP lead of just 7% was a long way out. The actual SNP lead was 18%. This is a timely reminder for both GE2015 polling and, of course, the Scottish IndyRef, just nine months away….

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Little change in the first two of the Sunday newspaper polls to report

Little change in the first two of the Sunday newspaper polls to report

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Unlike all the other pollsters that have reported this week tonight’s online surveys from Opinium for the Observer and ComRes for the Indy on Sunday/Sunday Mirror have the LAB lead steady or up a notch. This compares with the latest ICM, Ipsos-MORI, Populus online and YouGov surveys which have had Labour down a notch though all changes within the margin or error. Essentially we are where we were with LAB sort of holding steady but not with as comfortable a…

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Tomorrow’s 2013 SPOTY election: David Herdson says that the value bet could be that Murray doesn’t win

Tomorrow’s 2013 SPOTY election: David Herdson says that the value bet could be that Murray doesn’t win

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pic.twitter.com/wRDO5Y8pyA — PolPics (@PolPics) December 14, 2013 The BBC’s Sports Personality of the Year (SPOTY) is, like X Factor, Strictly Come Dancing, Big Brother or Eurovision, very much an election.  As with all elections, working out the likely chances comes down to correctly understanding four things: the candidates, the campaigns, the voters, and the electoral system. Since Andy Murray won Wimbledon in the Summer, he’s been extremely long odds on to win, to the extent that if you believe the…

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