Just 2 more YouGov daily polls this year and those who bet on a 2013 cross-over look set to be disappointed

Just 2 more YouGov daily polls this year and those who bet on a 2013 cross-over look set to be disappointed

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CON doing better than 2012 In the summer PaddyPower attracted a lot of betting interest with a new market on whether the Tories would over-take Labour in at least one poll before the end of the year. With the pollster packing up for the holidays at the weekend there are just two surveys left to go and unless there is something dramatic it looks as though those who bet at prices tighter than evens are going to have to say…

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Survation defends its methodology against Lord Ashcroft, John Rentoul and YouGov’s Anthony Wells

Survation defends its methodology against Lord Ashcroft, John Rentoul and YouGov’s Anthony Wells

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Following publication of our latest four constituency polls for Alan Bown earlier this week, there has been considerable public discussion of the methodology we used for these polls, including specific criticisms from Anthony Wells of YouGov, Lord Ashcroft and an article by John Rentoul which lists a number of criticisms passed to him by “a Conservative source”. I would like to use this opportunity to address these criticisms and provide a robust explanation for our choices of methodology. In his…

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Take the 33-1 that UKIP will win Cambourne and Redruth

Take the 33-1 that UKIP will win Cambourne and Redruth

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PaddyPower has put up some more GE2015 single constituency markets including the Cornish seats of Cambourne Redruth which the Tories took off the Lib Dems in 2010. The latest prices are CON 2/5: LD 5/2: LAB 8/1 and UKIP 33/1 As highlighted by Stuart Dickson and others on a previous threads the UKIP option is a good value bet. When it went up it was priced at 40/1 – odds that quickly moved in. What makes this seat particularly interesting…

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Time to make some money from the CON majority fantasists

Time to make some money from the CON majority fantasists

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Punters on the Betfair exchange now giving the Tories a 23.8% chance of an overall majority. See trend chart pic.twitter.com/MJoqFqQf7r — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 18, 2013 The Betfair 23.8% chance is a ludicrous over-assessment The latest trade in Betfair’s GE2015 outcome market has a CON majority rated as 23.8% chance. There must be a lot of blue supporters out there betting with their hearts not their heads – always a good opportunity for smart political punters. Let’s get this…

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The final phone poll of 2013 has almost no change on November

The final phone poll of 2013 has almost no change on November

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UPDATE – But LAB YouGov leads jumps 6 to 8% YouGov/Sun poll LAB lead jumps from 2% yesterday to 8% tonight CON 33%-3 LAB 41%+3 LD 8%= UKIP 13%+2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2013 So no autumn statement boost with ComRes phone There’s the December phone poll from ComRes for the Indy just out and the figures are almost exactly the same as in November. Only shift is that UKIP are down 1. The firm’s phone polls clearly use a different methodology…

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My favourite political betting moment of the year

My favourite political betting moment of the year

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When politics and poker met The worlds of politics and poker have been feeding off each other for many decades, and in the Middle East’s most discussed and highly charged conflict, the two were about to collide in an unexpected fashion. An army is on the move, rockets detonate with an unrelenting regularity and the civil war in Syria is reaching its most bloody phase. Prime Ministers take to the nearest camera to deliver a solemn hope for peace, and…

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My political pollster of the year: Lord Ashcroft

My political pollster of the year: Lord Ashcroft

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Remember national political polls are mood music. It's what's happening in the marginal seats that matters. — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) December 16, 2013 We are at that time of the year when we look back at what’s happened in the past twelve months and highlight and reflect. PB will be no different. Over the next few days there’ll be a number of posts with “……of the Year” in the heading. My first is for the man who, through his extensive…

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Like September’s @LordAshcroft poll latest constituency polling finds bigger CON>LAB swings than current national polling

Like September’s @LordAshcroft poll latest constituency polling finds bigger CON>LAB swings than current national polling

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Tonight we’ve got four new Alan Bown funded specific constituency polls carried out by Survation and the message is not good for the blues. Bown is a UKIP donor and national office holder. Just like Lord Ashcroft’s 13k sample phone polling of the marginals in September Survation find that the Tory position in the seats is worse than in national polling where we are seeing a 6-7% CON>LAB swing. The chart above shows moves much bigger than that in each…

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