Theresa May tops Boris for the first time in CONHome survey as preferred next party leader

Theresa May tops Boris for the first time in CONHome survey as preferred next party leader

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This could mean something or it could mean nothing but the December CONHome survey of party members sees a change at the top as preferred next party leader. This is the first time that the state school educated Home Secretary has been in this position in the site’s monthly survey of members. This might take on increasing importance over the next 18 months – for we could be less than a year away from the next contest. In recent times…

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The betting markets point to Labour re-taking Bradford West and Brighton Pavillion

The betting markets point to Labour re-taking Bradford West and Brighton Pavillion

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PaddyPower http://t.co/0KpwlJgy4T constituency odds have Respect losing Bradford W and the Greens Brighton Pavilion pic.twitter.com/QziJonTcDd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 21, 2013 @MSmithsonPB Greens immensely unpopular here – citywide poll had Labour with a 17% lead, Greens lost a by election in Pavilion on 11% swing — Cllr Warren Morgan (@warrenmorgan) December 21, 2013 Over the holiday period I’m planning to look at some of the constituency betting markets that we have up. There are now quite a few of…

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The big question is what exactly does UKIP want?

The big question is what exactly does UKIP want?

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This might be their one and only big chance but how to maximise it? This parliament has been about as kind as possible to UKIP.  The Conservatives and Lib Dems are both having to make unpopular decisions in government (and opting to make other unpopular ones to boot), while coalition pulls each party from its core vote.  Labour has not fully recovered from its own time in office.  None of the three leaders is well regarded.  That provides a massive…

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Local By-Election Results: December 19th 2013

Local By-Election Results: December 19th 2013

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Harper Green on Bolton (Lab Defence) Result: Lab 744 (51% -22% on 2012), Con 325 (23% +6% on 2012), UKIP 252 (18%), Green 60 (4%), Lib Dem 53 (4% -6%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 419 (28%) on a swing of 14% from Labour to Conservative since 2012 Elm and Christchurch on Fenland (Con Defence) Result: Con 301 (44%), UKIP 234 (34%), Ind 73 (11%), Lab 51 (7%), Lib Dem 27 (4%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 67…

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Unless the weekend polling produces a shock 2013 will be the first year since 2002 that the Tories didn’t record a lead in any opinion poll

Unless the weekend polling produces a shock 2013 will be the first year since 2002 that the Tories didn’t record a lead in any opinion poll

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The Tories have yet to record a lead in any opinion poll this year. The last year this happened was 2002. — Simon (@simonk133) December 19, 2013 I saw this Tweet earlier and thought I’d check it out. It is correct. At some point in every single year from 2003 to 2012 the Tories recorded at least one lead. On two occasions they’ve been level-pegging and this week they got within 2%. What this means electorally we’ll have to wait…

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The political party of 2013 – it has to be UKIP

The political party of 2013 – it has to be UKIP

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But winning seats matters more than votes In the final local by-elections of the year last night UKIP once again chalked up some impressive vote shares and came within 3 of taking a ward off the Tories in West Sussex – but when it came to seats they continue to struggle. The life-off moment for the party which seriously changed perceptions was on February 28th, the Eastleigh parliamentary by-election following Chris Huhne’s conviction and imprisonment. Starting out in fourth place…

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Local By-Election Preview: December 19th 2013

Local By-Election Preview: December 19th 2013

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Harper Green on Bolton (Lab Defence) Result of last election (2012): Lab 41, Con 16, Lib Dem 3 (Labour overall majority of 22) Result in ward over last electoral cycle: 2010: Lab 2,302 (45%), Lib Dem 1,203 (23%), Con 903 (18%), Ind 625 (12%), Green 114 (2%) 2011: Lab 1,918 (67%), Con 616 (22%), Lib Dem 326 (11%) 2012: Lab 1,656 (73%), Con 389 (17%), Lib Dem 222 (10%) Candidates duly nominated: Asha Ali Ismail (Lab), Wendy Connor (Lib Dem),…

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As concerns about the economy subside immigration could soon be biggest in the Ipsos-MORI Issues Index

As concerns about the economy subside immigration could soon be biggest in the Ipsos-MORI Issues Index

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@IpsosMORI Issues Index has been carried out in same way for 37 yrs and because it's unprompted is widely regarded as best test of salience — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2013 Main findings in December Ipsos-MORI Issues Index in which people state their concerns unprompted – what's salient pic.twitter.com/Gk2CL6no2T — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2013 As concerns about the economy subside immigration could soon be biggest issue See Ipsos-MORI December Issues index pic.twitter.com/utB3KKugw7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December…

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