— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 21, 2013
@MSmithsonPB Greens immensely unpopular here – citywide poll had Labour with a 17% lead, Greens lost a by election in Pavilion on 11% swing
— Cllr Warren Morgan (@warrenmorgan) December 21, 2013
I’ve got quite a few constituency bets already on. My approach has been to look for value and this far out I’m not really interested locking my stake money for anything tighter than 6/4. I’m not on either of the above seats because I think that a rebounding Labour party will take these back.
The loss of Bradford West in the by-election was a massive shock for the red team and with all the focus being on returning to power you can be sure that everything will be put into to winning this one back.
Labour would dearly love to add Pavillion to the very small number of seats that it has in Southern England – important both in getting towards a majority and in showing that this region is is not a no-go area
Brighton Pavillion was one of my betting successes last time. A conventient Green party funded ICM poll six months before had Caroline Lucas ahead and this was used repeatedly to get over that only she was able to beat Labour.
Since then the Greens have had some battles on the council and a recent by-election vistory for Labour suggests that their machine is in a good state. Ladbrokes have LAB at evens.