CON doing better than 2012
In the summer PaddyPower attracted a lot of betting interest with a new market on whether the Tories would over-take Labour in at least one poll before the end of the year.
With the pollster packing up for the holidays at the weekend there are just two surveys left to go and unless there is something dramatic it looks as though those who bet at prices tighter than evens are going to have to say goodbye to their money.
I kept out of this because what you are doing is wagering that there’ll be an outlier and how do you assess the chances of that?
The chart above does suggest that December has seen more turbulence than we had got used to during the period between the conference season and Osborne’s autumn statement.
The big thing to notice is that much of the change has been due to the CON share bouncing about rather than Labour’s. It has stayed pretty solid.
Compared with the same period in 2012 Labour is doing a fair bit worse. Then double digit leads were being recorded almost every day.