2013: The year when according to political punters, at least, nothing changed very much

2013: The year when according to political punters, at least, nothing changed very much

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December 2012 compared with December 2013 The chart says it all. There has been almost no change in prices on the Betfair exchange on the outcome of GE2015. The prices on a CON and LAB majority have edged down a bit with no overall majority moving up a notch. The big differences between now than then have been the resilience UKIP in the polls and the fact that the election is now little more than 16 months away. Labour’s polling…

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Overloading the EU juggernaut – how far can enlargement go?

Overloading the EU juggernaut – how far can enlargement go?

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Never mind Romania and Bulgaria, the real problems come down the line When Charles de Gaulle spoke of a Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals, he was promoting an alternative vision of the continent to the ‘ever closer union’ of the EEC: one which spanned economic systems and didn’t impinge on national interests as the EEC did (and which in his mind was incompatible with France’s position as a great power). At the time, the EEC had only six…

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The factors that drive much of the pro-LAB bias in general elections could work for the Tories in the May Euros

The factors that drive much of the pro-LAB bias in general elections could work for the Tories in the May Euros

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Don’t write off the Tories to win most votes We all know that the electoral system for Westminster seats seems to produce an outcome that is more favourable to LAB than the other parties. A big part of the reason for this is illustrated in the chart above. Labour has far fewer wasted votes. Thus looking at the first two columns – a much smaller proportion of LAB votes were “wasted” in seats where the party finished 3rd. A second…

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Final tally of local by-election changes for 2013 sees the Tories as the main losers

Final tally of local by-election changes for 2013 sees the Tories as the main losers

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Conservative GAINS From Labour: Leashowe and Moreton East (Wirral), Earls Barton (Wellingborough), Disraeli (Wycombe), Arbury (Nuneaton and Bedworth) From Liberal Democrat: Warden Hill (Cheltenham), Chase (Malvern Hills), Balsham (South Cambridgeshire), Sunbury East (Spelthorne), Greendown (Vale of the White Horse), Beverley (Kingston upon Thames), Maybury and Sheerwater (Woking), Comberton (South Cambridgeshire), Iver Village and Richings Park (South Buckinghamshire) From United Kingdom Independence Party: St. Mary’s (Worcestershire) From Independents: Sawton (South Cambridgeshire), Newby (Scarborough) From Others: Firthville from East Lindsey Independents (East…

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At last news a survey on EU2014 – next May’s national contest that nobody seems to want to poll

At last news a survey on EU2014 – next May’s national contest that nobody seems to want to poll

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UKIP, odds on favourites to win trail LAB by 7% On May 22nd next year the whole of the UK will be voting in the elections for the European Parliament yet there’s been very little media coverage and almost no polling. Whilst we have eight or nine Westminster VI polls a week you had until tonight to go back until early October to find the last EP2014 survey. This is surprising because EP2014 represents a massive opportunity for the new…

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The politics of interest rates: New YouGov poll finds more saying a rise would make them better off than worse off

The politics of interest rates: New YouGov poll finds more saying a rise would make them better off than worse off

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Times leads on YouGov poll on interest rates pic.twitter.com/Y5NsbeCb3a — PolPics (@PolPics) December 26, 2013 But is the headline just wishful thinking from the Times With the possiblility of interest rates increasing in 2014 the Times is leading on polling that suggests that more pople would benefit than would lose out. This certainly runs contrary to the general media narrative that low interests rates are a “good thing”. Maybe this is because those who work in the media are more…

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The Christmas Game: Part II

The Christmas Game: Part II

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Many thanks to Harry Hayfield, for providing the fun for Christmas Day. Below are the The Google Earth outline of five UK parliamentary constituencies. Can you guess what those constituencies are with the only clue being all the maps are aligned North to South, The answers will be posted later on this evening, the answers to the previous thread are. Number One: Tyrone West, Number Two: Blaenau Gwent, Number Three: Ogmore, Number Four: Glasgow East, Number Five: Leicestershire North West Enjoy guessing six to ten….

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The Christmas Game: Part I

The Christmas Game: Part I

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Many thanks to Harry Hayfield, for providing the fun for Christmas Day on PB. Below are the The Google Earth outline of five UK parliamentary constituencies. Can you guess what those constituencies are? The only clue being all the maps are aligned North to South. The answers will be posted when the thread for constituencies six to ten is published this afternoon. Have fun guessing one to five. TSE Constituency One Constituency Two Constituency Three Constituency Four Constituency Five