By-Election Preview : February 13th 2014

By-Election Preview : February 13th 2014

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Kingstanding on Birmingham (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Labour 77, Conservative 28, Liberal Democrats 15 (Labour overall majority of 34) Result of ward in last electoral cycle (2010 – 2012) 2010: Lab 3,372, Con 2,792, BNP 891, Lib Dem 866, National Front 160, Green 103 2011: Lab 2,210, Con 2,035, BNP 344, Lib Dem 128, Green 121 2012: Lab 2,014, Con 1,609, BNP 213, Green 106, Lib Dem 80, National Front 34 Candidates duly nominated: Graham…

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The Westminster – Edinburgh confrontation over the currency might be just what the YES campaign wants

The Westminster – Edinburgh confrontation over the currency might be just what the YES campaign wants

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Those who say that an independent Scotland will share the £ need to know: that is not going to happen #indyref — George Osborne (@George_Osborne) February 13, 2014 Sturgeon accuses Osborne of "campaign rhetoric" – http://t.co/tLPi7yYnNs – but also reiterates SNP's "not pay debt" threat #indyref — AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) February 13, 2014 The more London appears uunreasonable the more it could be strengthening the case for independence

Wythenshawe: To maintain momentum today UKIP needs a good second place with a vote share well above 20 percent

Wythenshawe: To maintain momentum today UKIP needs a good second place with a vote share well above 20 percent

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SportingIndex http://t.co/XReNcJQk6i open Wythenshawe spread betting market pic.twitter.com/bdfy19szyw — PolPics (@PolPics) February 11, 2014 Being beaten by the Tories would be a severe blow Unlike Labour, RESPECT and the Lib Dems Nigel Farage’s UKIP has not won a Westminster by-election during this parliament. It has been regularly, as the chart shows, getting second places and in three of the last five by-elections it has chalked up vote shares of more than 20%. But getting that elusive seat at Westminster is proving…

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Rob Ford and Matthew Goodwin have news of UKIP’s private polling in Wythenshawe

Rob Ford and Matthew Goodwin have news of UKIP’s private polling in Wythenshawe

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Good piece on Wythenshawe by-election via @GoodwinMJ with interesting news on UKIP private polling pic.twitter.com/YmTOHV73AG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 12, 2014 The Telegraph UKIP Watch blog spot by academics Rob Ford and Matthew Goodwin is becoming a must read given the importance of Farage’s party. Today they focus on tomorrow’s Wythenshawe by-election and why the purples have had to scale down expectations. I found these aspects very interesting:- “.. A few weeks ago the party undertook some private polling…

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Without Scotland the electoral system would appear much less biased towards Labour

Without Scotland the electoral system would appear much less biased towards Labour

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One aspect of Scottish independence is that the removal of MPs from North of the border would make the electoral system appear less biased to Labour and against the other parties. Toggle between Scottish MPs and the % of the Scottish GE2010 results to see the difference it makes. Last time Labour managed to chalk up just under 70% of the Scottish seats on just 42% of the votes. The Scottish Tories had just one seat (1.6% of the total)…

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Nighthawks is open

Nighthawks is open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re feeling Under Pressure, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, if you thinking, I Want To Break Free for lurking, why not delurk, you’ll find posting on PB is, A Kind of Magic. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) The truth about Britain’s volatile electorate. If the…

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Latest EU referendum polling suggests that the outcome would be far from a foregone conclusion

Latest EU referendum polling suggests that the outcome would be far from a foregone conclusion

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Four CON voters in 10 currently say they’d vote to stay It is a long time since I’ve looked at EU referendum polling and today’s numbers from YouGov rather surprised me. The gap between EXIT and STAY is getting closer and the party splits are not quite as you’d imagine. Of course there is no referendum on the agenda at the moment and I doubt whether Ed Miliband will promise one in the fifteen months that remain until GE2015. If…

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